20 kW Fast Charging Future

[sefs]

With all the new releases of 25 kW and 20 kW Chademo stations, I've been thinking that the manufacturers should just give their vehicles 20 kW worth of on board chargers, just like the Tesla Model S. This would be a great move to making public fast charging a reality. With 20 kW of on board charging capability, businesses no longer need to invest in an expensive (at least $6,000) Level 3 charging station. They can instead purchase a Clippercreek CS-100 for $2,200, and add it with a simple 100 amp circuit breaker. These things are rock solid and extremely simple. The FFE, for instance, could charge from 0% to 80% in about an hour. Now, this isn’t supercharging fast, but it definitely makes a one stop charge trip doable. Plus, this caters to all EV’s. I really think this is a much more achievable goal. I think it’s ridiculous to be installing 20 kW Chademo stations. I really doubt Chademo will be the prevailing standard in 10 years. However, home charging with some variant of J1772 is likely to be here for the long haul. A 20 kW on board charger is not an intense design consideration. I would expect a $1,500 premium over our 6.6 kW chargers in the long run.

Anyway, just my thoughts. Anyone else agree?

 

[ElSupreme]

I think it would be an intersting option. But in my Model S I opted not to get the 20kW charging, I stuck with the 10kW.

The reason - I have no knowledge of any public chargers putting out more than 7kW, much less 10kW. At home I only have a 150A service, certainly not enough to support 20kW charging there as well.

It would be great, but I have a feeling that Fast DC charging will beat out high powered L2 charging. Just think you could probably pay $5 per DC charge and spend less than $1500 per vehicle for the additional charger.

I would like to see high power L2 chargers, but I honestly think the market is going L3.

 

[hybridbear]

I think it would be an intersting option. But in my Model S I opted not to get the 20kW charging, I stuck with the 10kW.

The reason - I have no knowledge of any public chargers putting out more than 7kW, much less 10kW. At home I only have a 150A service, certainly not enough to support 20kW charging there as well.

So on your Tesla your fastest non-SuperCharger charging is 10kW? I didn't know that Tesla had various options for the fastest charge for owners when charging at home, etc.

 

[ElSupreme]

So on your Tesla your fastest non-SuperCharger charging is 10kW? I didn't know that Tesla had various options for the fastest charge for owners when charging at home, etc.

The Model S comes with two charging options:

10kW (standard, 40A @250VAC) single charger
20kW (optional, 80A @250VAC) twin chargers (extra $1.5k when I ordered)

Both of these can probably handle up to 277VAC (one leg of 480V 3 phase) and it is rumored that they are the same chargers located in the supercharger stations (thus the 277VAC speculation).

I didn't opt for the faster 20kW charging, because I couldn't take advantage of it at home or any chargers near me.

 

[hybridbear]

So on your Tesla your fastest non-SuperCharger charging is 10kW? I didn't know that Tesla had various options for the fastest charge for owners when charging at home, etc.

The Model S comes with two charging options:

10kW (standard, 40A @250VAC) single charger
20kW (optional, 80A @250VAC) twin chargers (extra $1.5k when I ordered)

Both of these can probably handle up to 277VAC (one leg of 480V 3 phase) and it is rumored that they are the same chargers located in the supercharger stations (thus the 277VAC speculation).

I didn't opt for the faster 20kW charging, because I couldn't take advantage of it at home or any chargers near me.

Ok thanks for the explanation. But you're still able to use SuperChargers, right?

 

[ElSupreme]

Ok thanks for the explanation. But you're still able to use SuperChargers, right?

Yes Superchargers are completely separate of charger selection. As they bypass the onboard chargers (AC->DC Rectifiers) and supply DC directly to the battery.

All 85kWh cars have this ability. And the 60kWh cars have it as an option, either at purchase or after purchase as a real time over the air software update.

 

[cpwl]

With all the new releases of 25 kW and 20 kW Chademo stations, I've been thinking that the manufacturers should just give their vehicles 20 kW worth of on board chargers, just like the Tesla Model S. This would be a great move to making public fast charging a reality. With 20 kW of on board charging capability, businesses no longer need to invest in an expensive (at least $6,000) Level 3 charging station. They can instead purchase a Clippercreek CS-100 for $2,200, and add it with a simple 100 amp circuit breaker. These things are rock solid and extremely simple. The FFE, for instance, could charge from 0% to 80% in about an hour. Now, this isn’t supercharging fast, but it definitely makes a one stop charge trip doable. Plus, this caters to all EV’s. I really think this is a much more achievable goal. I think it’s ridiculous to be installing 20 kW Chademo stations. I really doubt Chademo will be the prevailing standard in 10 years. However, home charging with some variant of J1772 is likely to be here for the long haul. A 20 kW on board charger is not an intense design consideration. I would expect a $1,500 premium over our 6.6 kW chargers in the long run.

Anyway, just my thoughts. Anyone else agree?

There seems to be some confusion as to just what CHAdeMO and Level 3 charging is. Someone correct me if I am wrong but my understanding is that Level 3 is high speed DC charging which is what CHAdeMO is (and Supercharging for Tesla). The high power, high speed Level 3 DC charging actually bypasses the onboard chargers so the charger size is quite irrelevant when pluged into CHAdeMo stations. The limitation of DC charging is just how much DC power the battery can accept (not sure just what the chemical/electrical limiting factors are here) but it is generally limited to around 0.8 - 1C. (As usual Tesla pushes the battery technology boundary and approaches 1.5C charging rates.) A 20 KW CHAdeMO charger would represent an 0.85C charging and a 25KW station would be a 1.04C charging rate which would probably be pushing the FFE battery to its charging temperature limits.

Larger capacity or dual chargers permit higher charging rates at level 2 chargers, ie 240VAC chargers, such as the still rare but extant 90amp J1772 chargers. Right now the FFE charger (6.6 KW) draw is just under 30amps regardless of the EVSE capacity. To charge the FFE battery faster on a Level 2 EVSE requires either a larger charger or dual chargers of total capacity more than 6.6 KW. (In the case of Tesla the dual 10 KW chargers (20Kw total) permit the use of level 2 charging at 80 amps delivered to the chargers and is most applicable to their HPWC that ultimately gives 59miles/hr charging rates from a 100Amp 240VAC home circuit. Remember circuits should be sized such that the continuous load should not exceed 80% of the circuit's maximum rating.)

So the correct suggestion here is for Ford to install the DC fast charging hardware that will permit use of the CHAdeMO Level 3 chargers, which of course will, according to Fords prior statements, utilze the "Frankenplug" dual charging format plug - combined J1772 and DC Fast Charging.

In all honesty I don't see any practical value in significantly increasing the charger capacity. At 6.6 KW the current charger can recharge the battery from fully depleted (8% actual capacity) to full (90% actual capacity) in about 4 hours which is plenty fast enough for overnight charging and how often do owners return home wth such a low state of charge (SOC)? It would be quite rare that anyone would come home with a depleted battery and need to recharge to full in short order to facilitate a second full charge trip. Installation of the DC Fast Charging hardware that would permit the use of CHAdeMO charging stations would be only marginally more useful in that it would allow full range trips to locations with CHAdeMo stations to quickly recharge for the return trip, probably a rare occurance because if you are travelling 70 miles or so to a shopping centre or entertainment even chances are you will be 3 or 4 hours which would permit a full recharge at a J1772 station.

One can always argue for the 1% requirement but few would want to pay the significant purchase price increase it would invoke. Faster charging rates through larger onboard chargers or Fast DC Charging is really a product/necessity of much larger batteries than are fitted in the current FFE. If Ford ever increases the FFE battery capacity to 35 or 40 KW hours to get the car's range up to 150-160 miles then larger chargers and DC Fast Charging capability becomes much more valuable.

My thoughs anyway, YMMV

Thanks and Cheers

Carl

 

[EVA]

I went a strange direction with my Model S 85 kWh - I ordered it with the single charger. I didn't really understand the difference and dual chargers seemed like a waste of money.

Then I planned a trip to Louisville, KY. There are no superchargers between Chicago and Louisville. There is a Tesla store with a charging station in Indianapolis. When I called about the station, I discovered I would be charging at 29 miles per hour and have to wait about 7 hours to get the range I needed. With dual chargers I could charge at 58 miles per hour - a three or four hour wait, not ideal but reasonable.

So I had the dual chargers installed. A simple half day thing the service center could do. Yes it was more expensive after the fact.

Now, if I use a High Performance charger at somebody's house, or a charger at a Tesla station, I can charge much faster.

As ElSupreme mentioned - superchargers are a completely different thing and not related to the chargers in the car.

 

[sefs]

With all the new releases of 25 kW and 20 kW Chademo stations, I've been thinking that the manufacturers should just give their vehicles 20 kW worth of on board chargers, just like the Tesla Model S. This would be a great move to making public fast charging a reality. With 20 kW of on board charging capability, businesses no longer need to invest in an expensive (at least $6,000) Level 3 charging station. They can instead purchase a Clippercreek CS-100 for $2,200, and add it with a simple 100 amp circuit breaker. These things are rock solid and extremely simple. The FFE, for instance, could charge from 0% to 80% in about an hour. Now, this isn’t supercharging fast, but it definitely makes a one stop charge trip doable. Plus, this caters to all EV’s. I really think this is a much more achievable goal. I think it’s ridiculous to be installing 20 kW Chademo stations. I really doubt Chademo will be the prevailing standard in 10 years. However, home charging with some variant of J1772 is likely to be here for the long haul. A 20 kW on board charger is not an intense design consideration. I would expect a $1,500 premium over our 6.6 kW chargers in the long run.

Anyway, just my thoughts. Anyone else agree?

There seems to be some confusion as to just what CHAdeMO and Level 3 charging is. Someone correct me if I am wrong but my understanding is that Level 3 is high speed DC charging which is what CHAdeMO is (and Supercharging for Tesla). The high power, high speed Level 3 DC charging actually bypasses the onboard chargers so the charger size is quite irrelevant when pluged into CHAdeMo stations. The limitation of DC charging is just how much DC power the battery can accept (not sure just what the chemical/electrical limiting factors are here) but it is generally limited to around 0.8 - 1C. (As usual Tesla pushes the battery technology boundary and approaches 1.5C charging rates.) A 20 KW CHAdeMO charger would represent an 0.85C charging and a 25KW station would be a 1.04C charging rate which would probably be pushing the FFE battery to its charging temperature limits.

Larger capacity or dual chargers permit higher charging rates at level 2 chargers, ie 240VAC chargers, such as the still rare but extant 90amp J1772 chargers. Right now the FFE charger (6.6 KW) draw is just under 30amps regardless of the EVSE capacity. To charge the FFE battery faster on a Level 2 EVSE requires either a larger charger or dual chargers of total capacity more than 6.6 KW. (In the case of Tesla the dual 10 KW chargers (20Kw total) permit the use of level 2 charging at 80 amps delivered to the chargers and is most applicable to their HPWC that ultimately gives 59miles/hr charging rates from a 100Amp 240VAC home circuit. Remember circuits should be sized such that the continuous load should not exceed 80% of the circuit's maximum rating.)

So the correct suggestion here is for Ford to install the DC fast charging hardware that will permit use of the CHAdeMO Level 3 chargers, which of course will, according to Fords prior statements, utilze the "Frankenplug" dual charging format plug - combined J1772 and DC Fast Charging.

In all honesty I don't see any practical value in significantly increasing the charger capacity. At 6.6 KW the current charger can recharge the battery from fully depleted (8% actual capacity) to full (90% actual capacity) in about 4 hours which is plenty fast enough for overnight charging and how often do owners return home wth such a low state of charge (SOC)? It would be quite rare that anyone would come home with a depleted battery and need to recharge to full in short order to facilitate a second full charge trip. Installation of the DC Fast Charging hardware that would permit the use of CHAdeMO charging stations would be only marginally more useful in that it would allow full range trips to locations with CHAdeMo stations to quickly recharge for the return trip, probably a rare occurance because if you are travelling 70 miles or so to a shopping centre or entertainment even chances are you will be 3 or 4 hours which would permit a full recharge at a J1772 station.

One can always argue for the 1% requirement but few would want to pay the significant purchase price increase it would invoke. Faster charging rates through larger onboard chargers or Fast DC Charging is really a product/necessity of much larger batteries than are fitted in the current FFE. If Ford ever increases the FFE battery capacity to 35 or 40 KW hours to get the car's range up to 150-160 miles then larger chargers and DC Fast Charging capability becomes much more valuable.

My thoughs anyway, YMMV

Thanks and Cheers

Carl

Carl,

You are correct. Chademo is DC charging and does not require any on board charger on the vehicle. My point was that the J1772 standard allows for up to 20 kW of draw (80A). A 20 kW J1772 station, for instance the Clippercreek CS-100, is much less expensive and much more reliable than the 20-25 kW Chademo stations that have been installed recently. So the main point of my post was that for less than a third the cost, businesses could be providing 80A J1772 instead of 20 kW Chademo stations. Plus, these J1772 stations have a much better track record for reliability.

The second part that you bring up is home charging. I will agree with you that in the summer, the 3.5 hour charge time is plenty fast for my needs, but in the winter this is a whole different story. I'll frequently come home with less than 10 miles remaining after my 38 mile commute. This past winter I found myself waiting quite a bit to build up enough charge to do more driving in the evening. 20 kW of on board charging would have been extremely useful this winter.

Thanks for the reply.

 

[jmueller065]

It would be quite rare that anyone would come home with a depleted battery and need to recharge to full in short order to facilitate a second full charge trip.

Something I do about 12 times a year: Return home with <50% battery left but need to go out again for a 65 mile round-trip (Downtown to a Tigers game). Sure we could just leave the FFE in the garage and take the ICE car but where is the fun in that?
On these days my solution has been:

• Top off at a charger about a mile away from work when I get in (this recovers the 4-5 kWh used for my commute in and makes for a nice walk)
  When I get home top off for an hour just prior to leaving for the game (recovering the 4-5 kWh used for the trip home)

If I was lucky like you guys with Tesla's I wouldn't need that extra charge and could make the 95 mile total drive for the day on one charge.

I even did this round trip in the winter to a Red Wings game and the Detroit International Auto Show. In those cases I needed to park at a garage downtown that had a Chargepoint station--wouldn't make it home without that charge.

 

[cpwl]

@Sefs,

Sorry about mis-understanding your original post. Clearly I didn’t read it sufficiently closely to see that you were actually proposing a charger of sufficient capacity that using a high current capable J1772 EVSE could compete (timewise) with a CHAdeMO station rather than installing DC charging hardware as well as the standard charger. There certainly are third party cost advantages to this approach which would make their installation much more palatable to businesses, perhaps even to the extent that they would be able to install multiple EVSEs.

While there are certainly times where such chargers would be useful, as @jmueller065 has illustrated, probably much more so than I first thought, I’m still not convinced that this is going to be a feature that will be widely demanded by the FFE owners’/prospective owners' community as a whole. Perhaps the better suggestion is for Ford to keep the 6.6 KW charger as the standard fit and to offer either dual 6.6 KW chargers or a 20KW charger as a factory installed option at the time of order. That way those who do not need this capability don’t have to pay for an “unnecessary” feature and those that need it have the option available to them. It would be inteesting to see how the orders panned out if this option were available!

Thanks and Cheers

Carl

 

[michael]

I would propose including an SAE combo charger capability rather than dual chargers. Everyone but Nissan is moving in that direction. (Tesla is proprietary)

It's only a matter of time until someone produces a home/light commercial charger that provides maybe 20 kW that can run on 220 V (which I think is about right) rather than the heavy-duty 440V DC chargers seen in public locations.

And Ford, puleeze provide Energi models with 6 kW charging. Those things take hours to charge up and block 6 KW users from access to shared charging stations. You too, GM!!! Spark has 3 kW charger, how dumb is that.

 

[cpwl]

Personally I don’t like the combo plug and not just because it is a big “clunky” piece of agricultural-appearing technology. Having independent ports like the Nissan Leaf allows for the use of lighter more flexible cables, both Level 2 and Level 3 which becomes extremely important to those of us who experience -20oF winters, or worse. At those tmeperatures heavy cables have become almost totally inflexible and their use becomes a “wrestling match”. Lighter cables also utilize more manageable plugs that can be a little more “forgiving” regarding alignment when being connected and disconnected and put less stress on the car’s charge port itself. Additionally independent charging ports should allow for maximum accessibility at any charging station. (Have the networks deploying CHAdeMO chargers indicated that they will support the SAE combination plug?)

The Tesla plug and battery charging systems are “sort of” proprietary in that Tesla recently released all their patents for “good faith” use by any EV manufacturer. If Ford wanted to utilize the Tesla format plug, Tesla or Tesla-compatible charging systems and agreed to the Supercharger business model then FFEs could be added to the Supercharger network. The likelihood of that happening in the foreseeable future is however virtually zero – and consequently the delay in the adoption of an industrial standard for fast charging will be indeterminate.

I certainly have to agree that 6.6 KW chargers should be the minimum utilized in any PHEV or BEV no matter the battery size to facilitate a decent customer turnover rate at charging stations and thereby correct the delays that Michael has experienced.

Thanks and Cheers

Carl

 

[jeffand]

I think up grading the on board charger to a 10 kw on the FFE would be a good idea. A couple reasons for this. The FFE on board charger draws about 28 amps. With an increase to 40 amps will reduce charge times to 2 hours and 45 minutes. Most home chargers plug into 50 amp circuits any way. Beefing up the electronics in the home charger will not cost much more to do this. Charging at higher rates buts a higher demand on the battery thermal management system.
Chargepoint should make standard on the J1772 charging stations be 40 amps for all new station.

 

[unplugged]

Personally I don’t like the combo plug and not just because it is a big “clunky” piece of agricultural-appearing technology. Having independent ports like the Nissan Leaf allows for the use of lighter more flexible cables, both Level 2 and Level 3 which becomes extremely important to those of us who experience -20oF winters, or worse.

From what I have heard from Leaf owners, the CHAdeMO charging cable is hardly any better in the flexibility department than the CCS. In fact, reports I have read say the CCS "nozzle plug" is easier to handle than the CHAdeMO one.

As you can see from this photo, the cable is pretty damn thick and unwieldy also. http://www.plugincars.com/why-chademo-death-row-europe-128001.html

Or this photo of a combo CHAdeMO and CCS station showing the cable to be the same size: http://new.abb.com/ev-charging/multi-standard/terra-53-cj-ul

After all, these cables both have to supply the same DC charge.

 

[Rogerschro]

I think regardless of range capabilities of future electrics, that the single most important question to be answered is charge times. We need to have fast and convenient charge times. Even if the car in question is a PHEV or limited range EV such as the FFE, if charge times were faster, then more people would be interested in the technology. If the FFE could be charged in say two hours from 0, then most people would be able and willing to use it for normal commuting and local trips that go just a bit further than it's range capability. For example, if I were to drive to work 40 miles one way, then go out to the mall to shop or run errands, an additional 30 miles trip, I would be out 70 miles from home with only 20(+/-) miles left in the 'tank'. With the current chargers I would need 4 hours. With quick chargers, assuming I couldn't charge at work but the mall had chargers, I could get there, charge and be ready to make it home with only an hours worth of charge time. That is far more realistic for most than spending four hours at a store or various charge stations.
One hour is easy to kill, 4 hours, not so much, and that is at least 3 hours we do not have to spare. Most drivers could just plug in for half an hour or so, and get going again, doing this at various stations as they ran their errands. With current charge rates, it isn't very useful to plug in for 30 minutes, it is a hassle and very little net gain for the effort, especial if it is bad weather. Fast charge would also be useful for winter range issues, again making the effort to charge in short time feasible.

I would like to have a 150-200 mile capable Focus, even though most of my driving is 30 mile round trips. Where I live there are very few charge stations, most of which are way off my usual path or where I would drive to if making a longer trip. the few that show would require me to sit for hours with nothing to do or lack places of interest. But if I could fast charge for say an hour and get 70% of my charge back, I could wait that long even with nothing to do. The -80 mile range is not a big problem with fast charge, it is without it.

Charge times are the single biggest issues, not capacity. I'd have no issues with the 80 mile range of the FFE if I could fast charge it. Also, it would encourage more charge locations if the turn around was significantly faster, get in get out, such as municipal parking, malls, or even street side parking spaces. To have a charge station tied up for hours for just one car is economically unfeasible and discourages businesses and cities from investing in them, but if they could service electrics faster, more people benefit and that becomes economically more feasible for everybody. We must have faster charge capability if we are to have a significantly larger amount of electric cars on the road. Much more infrastructure and faster turn around are mutual requirements if electric cars are to become more than novelty items to most folks.

 

[cpwl]

@Rogerschro,

Agreed, charging times are and will for the foreseeable future be the one fundamental characteristic of EVs that significantly impedes their widespread adoption. And yet this has in large part already been solved, or at least the opportunity for it to be solved exists! That solution is of course Tesla’s Supercharger network and the release of their patents for “good faith use”. The fact that nobody has yet taken Tesla up on their offer however shows just how obstinate manufactures can be when it is not their own technology being considered for general adoption even when consumers loose out because of that willful behaviour. It is generally accepted that Tesla has the highest energy density batteries currently in production and most certainly have the highest DCQC rate at nearly 1.5C. IF, and that is an enormous IF, Ford were to adopt the Supercharger protocols and increase the FFE battery size sufficiently to allow a reliable 120 mile (the nominal distance between Superchargers) range in winter weather then FFEs could roam the highways with virtually no restrictions. It is not quite straight forward because the battery size would have to come up to the 41-46KWh range (approx. 19.5KWr usable x 1.75 giving 35KWh usable capacity plus about 6KWh reserve for batter protection to give a summer range of 140 miles or 19.5KWh x 2 +7KWh reserve to give a summer range of 160 miles). Stuffing that much battery into the current FFE chassis would be a huge, if not impossible, challenge. And the fact that the heavier battery takes more energy to carry around really means a 43 to 48KWh battery is probably required to provide a reliable 140 to 160 mile summer range to have any chance of a 120 mile winter range making it yet more difficult to fit into the current FFE chassis. Charging at an average of 1.35C for the first 80% of batter capacity means that such an FFE would take about 45 minutes to recharge from a usable depleted state to a usable 80% SOC. A 95% usable SOC recharge would take in the order of 75-80 minutes
Even if the technical challenges were overcome the business model of paying for supercharger access up front presents another challenge that may be even more difficult for Ford Corporate Headquarters to overcome both in terms of reversing their decision to go with the CCS format or at least amending it to add the Tesla format and adopting the business model of another company, let alone an “upstart” such as Tesla.

From a consumers point of view a 120 mile range FFE with CCS or CHAdeMO DCQC would be great for around town or short highway jaunts. As much as I like the FFE and will enjoy mine when it is finally delivered it is on the small and underpowered side for long highway drives. A car’s creature comforts and ride characteristics that are fine for 45 minutes to an hour around town often fall short when they are imposed on a driver and passengers for 3 or more hours. So what I would really rather see in the medium term, say 3 to 5 years, is for Ford or Magna on their behalf, to conduct the research and development necessary to fit an electric drive into the Fusion/MKZ chassis that can give a reliable summer range of 210-235 miles at 60mph, probably requiring a 70-75 KWh battery, and make it supercharger compatible. (In this case the battery should be slung under the passenger compartment analogous to the Tesla Model S leaving the trunk space free of EV infrastructure.) Provide me with the option of buying Supercharger access (probably at a 15-25% premium over Tesla’s price to its own customers) at the time of purchase of this Fusion/MKZ and then the only ICE I would ever regularly need is the tow vehicle for my travel trailer (currently a Ford E-150 Chateau Van).

As I see it, Tesla has spent the money and done the research to develop a now proven very high speed L3 charging system. Furthermore, they have made a great start on the necessary DCQC infrastructure which has essentially been funded by the consumer, facilitated and conducted by Tesla but nevertheless funded by the consumer. There truly is no need for Ford, or anyone else for that matter, to spend copious sums of money to “re-invent the wheel” and come up with another format and independent infrastructure “just because”. And let’s be honest, not adopting Tesla’s format is really a case of digging in their heels to try and punish Tesla and avoid embracing and facilitating, even slowing what is an inevitable adoption of EVs by a large portion of the general driving population.

My thoughts on the topic anyway, YMMV…..

Thanks and Cheers

Carl

 

[Max]

Just my 2 cents ..

I have a gut feeling that things are going to get a bit rough for EV's over the next few years

1. Cheap Gas
2. Big Oil / Big Money running politics
a. reduction or elimination of rebates/CARB
b. special regulations/taxes for EV's
3. Too many competing standards (charging)
4. Automakers slow /unwilling to make electrics

Tesla will probably be bought by Ford, Toyota or other big auto maker, they then will pronounce it is not profitable and close /change the business model.

I hope I am wrong.. but history tends to repeat itself and to a degree this has happened before with the EV-1

 

[pjam3]

Just my 2 cents ..

I have a gut feeling that things are going to get a bit rough for EV's over the next few years

1. Cheap Gas
2. Big Oil / Big Money running politics
a. reduction or elimination of rebates/CARB
b. special regulations/taxes for EV's
3. Too many competing standards (charging)
4. Automakers slow /unwilling to make electrics

Tesla will probably be bought by Ford, Toyota or other big auto maker, they then will pronounce it is not profitable and close /change the business model.

I hope I am wrong.. but history tends to repeat itself and to a degree this has happened before with the EV-1

I think Tesla gets sold because Musk isn't a guy who sticks around long term. Once he has that $35K or whatever model out there and the Battery factory up and running, he probably sells it. He has already talked about doing various things. And his personality isn't really the type who sticks around for 20 years at a company. And the EV market is not a short term thing. It's a 20+ year roadmap of improvements, changes, etc. And plus the guy seems far more interested in his SpaceX stuff these days than Tesla.

And who knows if he ever will make that $35K Model. His '$70K' Model S is really a $100K car. So if his $35K model is really $45K, it becomes a car that most people will never buy or afford anyway. And once Tesla stops being Tesla or Musk did what he wanted and leaves or runs it like he does SolarCity, it will be interesting to see. Tesla has changed the game, but it is all Musk. He is "iron man" to many people. If he winds up spending more time doing SpaceX stuff or sells of Tesla, the cool factor is gone. Apple lost some of it's cool factor when Jobs died, but they have been around a long time, have a cult following and sell items that are mostly under $1K. Far different than selling $50K=100K items.

 

[Marv]

Greetings from rainy Gresham Oregon.

I bought my FFE just after Thanksgiving 2014. Had to get it home from Seattle, but that's another story.

So as a new owner I'll have to admit that this has been a learning process. Understanding how range really works considering temperature, weight, terrain and using other electrical devices (heater) has taken me longer than I would have thought. Having said that, I am not sorry I made the purchase (that reminds me that I need to do my tax return).

Used the 110v unit for a bit (which in all honesty would meet my needs maybe 80% of the time) then bought the Clipper Creek 40. Big difference. Preheating the cabin and by virtue topping the battery off and I think warming it too made a noticable improvement. Haven't seen it take longer than 3.5 hours to charge yet.

So, I'm getting comfortable with my 34 mile commute and my around town driving. But for the first 6 weeks or so I was mainly watching the GOM and doing math in my head and spending too much time being cold. Now I just charge and go. Don't look much at the dash. Guess what, this is a fun car to drive and I now enjoy it. Haven't gotten caught with a dead battery and don't think it's likely. Gave my slightly nervous wife a "coupon" for a free tow home and told her to drive and charge and not worry. If you get stuck call a tow truck and call it an adventure.

So yesterday we ventured down to Salem to see my daughter. Met her at the restaurant instead of picking her up because it was closer. 110 mile round trip. There was a transit center about a block away with several chargers. As it turned out, we just spent time enjoying each other and by the time we left I was at nearly a full charge and got home warm with miles to spare.

Next week we are headed to the beach for 3 days. 106 miles one way. Time for the ICE. Would love to drive the FFE, but it just won't work. Its going to be hilly, cold and rainy. Yes, there are places to charge, but we want to get there not sit and wait for the batteries. I have another work trip to Sea-Tac that's about 175 miles one way coming up. Will drive my Taurus for that too.

To be honest, I'm a little disappointed. I would be willing to be a bit cold and charge along the way, but it's just too much time to wait. DC quick charge would be amazing. I would definately take the FFE. but if I could get a real nice bump in an hour or a little more, this car would literally work for 99% of my driving. It does make me look hard at the Volt or Bolt and certainly the fantom Tesla. If Ford could just give a little. To be honest, the 2015 was disapointing.

So, whatever the EV industry could do to get one good step forward would really help. A Super charger hyway sounds great, but I just want to get to the beach.

Marv