FFE Shopping question: Would you Rather?

[oilerlord]

Buy a 2013 FFE with 10K (or less) miles at ~$12,000

OR

Buy a 2012 FFE with 30K miles at ~$9,000

The question being...is 20,000 fewer miles, a year newer, and a few months of basic warranty remaining worth a $3,000 premium? I'm leaning toward going the cheap route and taking my chances. Wondering what other owners think about this.

 

[jmueller065]

Go with fewer miles: You'll get a younger battery with less wear/degredation/etc.

 

[oilerlord]

What I don't know is how much wear to expect at any given mileage. One owner mentioned he's noticed zero degradation after 30K miles in Arizona heat, while another owner with 48K miles said that he's lost about 25% of his range. If at 30K miles, the loss is only ~10% then the choice is easy...pocket the $3,000.

How much does a battery's age factor into this, or should I only be concerned about charge cycles? For example, there are a few "nearly new" 2012's with 4K miles or less on them. In terms of battery longevity, would a 2014 with 20K miles be a be the better choice because it's 2 years newer?

 

[jmueller065]

That is true you could get a "gently used" one with 30k miles on it or a "heavily used" one with only 10k miles on it.

Battery age is one of the factors; another factor is how deeply into the battery the use went (when I turned mine in with 30k miles on it I had almost no degradation but mine was only discharged to about 50% on a daily basis; others with 30k miles have shown some degradation and they went further into the battery each cycle). A 3rd factor (although not as strong as the others) is the amount of time the car sat around at a full charge--in a typical day, using the value charge feature, mine would finish off the charge about an hour before I used it.

Since the usage can vary greatly its very difficult to determine how the car was used the simple go with the newest, fewest miles rule of thumb would let you get the best possible battery (note that everything else about the car will pretty much be identical--2012s did have a few extra features (home link, rain sensing wipers)).

Wait for more comments, though, you'll probably get more in-depth discussions...

 

[kalel14]

I had these exact same options. The unknown element of risk in this car is battery life. Other electrical components have enormous longevity. That's why there is no preventative maintenance cycle to speak of for this car. I went with the low mileage car to minimize the biggest risk. The price rationalization? At 13,000 miles, this was basically a new cutting-edge car for less than a low-end Mitsubishi. The price difference rationalization? I keep cars long term. Years and years from now, it won't matter. In fact, months later, it already doesn't matter because I've discovered that the battery is good as new.

 

[oilerlord]

There are smartphone apps for the Leaf and i-MiEV such as Leaf Spy Pro and CanIon that, though an OBD2 bluetooth dongle, have the ability to report the health of individual battery cells. Is such an app available for the FFE?

Jmueller's point makes sense...that it's a crapshoot as to the condition of a used FFE's battery. A deep cycled battery has more wear than one that doesn't, so it's impossible to know the driving patterns of the previous owner, and how much life is left in the battery without a diagnostic.

 

[jmueller065]

There are smartphone apps for the LEAF and i-MiEV such as LEAF Spy Pro and CanIon that, though an OBD2 bluetooth dongle, have the ability to report the health of individual battery cells. Is such an app available for the FFE?

Yes its called MyFordMobile.

In addition you can use FORScan with an OBD-II dongle to get more information.

 

[michael]

What I don't know is how much wear to expect at any given mileage. One owner mentioned he's noticed zero degradation after 30K miles in Arizona heat, while another owner with 48K miles said that he's lost about 25% of his range. If at 30K miles, the loss is only ~10% then the choice is easy...pocket the $3,000.

How much does a battery's age factor into this, or should I only be concerned about charge cycles? For example, there are a few "nearly new" 2012's with 4K miles or less on them. In terms of battery longevity, would a 2014 with 20K miles be a be the better choice because it's 2 years newer?

I wouldn't put much confidence in that particular Arizona claim. It isn't plausible. He has made the exact same claim several times on this board and others. I don't know what he is seeing, but I don't believe it's accurate.

Go for the newer, less used car. The battery is a constantly degrading item, and there is no practical way to "overhaul" it like there would be with a worn engine.

Battery degradation has both a "cycles" element and a "time" element. If one left a charged up car in the sun for three years and hardly ever drove it, the battery would still be in sad shape. Think about laptops that are left plugged in...in a few years the battery is weak even though it is never used.

Better yet, look into options to lease a brand new one. In three more years, these used cars will be essentially valueless. The cost of ownership will be more than the lease payments would have been, and even if you keep the car it will be obsolete and quite possibly degraded.

If you go to the Ford website, they are offering a three year 31,500 mile lease at 237/month with 882 due at signing, call it roughly 260/month allocating the 882, a little over $9K over three years. In reality, you can probably get a much better deal than the nationally advertised offer plus depending on where you live there may be local government money.

The paradigm of "I keep my cars for a long time" doesn't work well with EVs. They degrade, and better ones are constantly being offered.

I can't tell you how happy I am that the leases on my FFE and my Volts are expiring over the next 15 months. I get to replace them with newer, better models, probably at lower payments.

 

[oilerlord]

Unfortunately, we don't get those attractive leases here in Alberta because those juicy tax rebates and incentives aren't offered here. If they were, I'd be driving a 2016 Spark EV at $1500 down & $79 per month on a three year lease.

I figure that $12,000 car "should" be worth at least $8000 three years from now in my local car market. The ~$4,000 savings in using my solar to charge the car along with a near zero cost of maintenance brings my overall cost of ownership down to about $8,000. EV's are rare in Alberta (mostly because of the lack of incentives) but there are a lot of folks keen on them so I don't think I'll have a problem getting most of my money back after three years. By that time, I might be able to get a used Model 3 in the low $20's.

 

[michael]

In three years you expect to sell a six year old FFE for $8K and buy a used Model 3 in the low 20's? Good luck on that. Good luck in being able to buy a new Model 3 in three years.

But seriously...is there any reason you couldn't lease a car in the US? The tax incentive WILL apply since they go to Ford Financial, have nothing to do with the residency of the driver. Would Canada let you bring in the car?

 

[oilerlord]

I'd have to have to run the tax credit fine print through Ford Financial or GMAC but it's reasonable to believe that the in the spirit of receiving a tax incentive (for either lessee or lessor) that the driver:

a.) Is a US citizen and/or files a US tax return
b.) Owns & drives a zero emissions vehicle in a US state

Ok, perhaps in four years I'll be able to buy a used Model 3 in the low $20's. Assuming Elon Musk keeps his promise of pricing the car at $35,000, and $10,000 of tax credits are applied, I don't think it's too much of a stretch that I'll be able to find a used Model 3 at $22,000.

Yes, FFE's and Spark EV's are admissible into Canada, and are sold here (though you won't find one in any dealer showroom or car lot in Alberta). I can order a Canadian 2016 FFE for ~$36,000 - but I'd rather just import a 2-3 year old low mileage US car for $12,000.

 

[pjam3]

The tax credit only works for the first 200K sold. So if the Model 3 is as good as advertised and is delivered, there won't be a tax credit for most new buyers.

 

[damania]

Looking over the numbers, most people buying the Model 3 will not get the full federal tax credit. It will be the existing S and X owners that will get the tax credit because they get first dibs as existing owners and you know they are the richer than the other Model 3 buyers and don't really need the tax credit. I think about 1/3rd of the Tesla 3 buyers will get 1/2 or 1/4 of the tax credit, but not the full $7500.

This is where the other manufacturers can beat up Tesla. Why buy a Model 3 for around $35k-$40k when you can spend $20k (after tax credits) to get a Leaf or Bolt or FFE with close to the 200 mile range (in 3-5 years) and DC charging? Ok fine, the charging takes 50mins instead of 30mins on the way to Vegas. Big deal!

 

[damania]

Also that 280k reserved buyers for the Model 3 is bullshit. There was a limit of 2 per person. Most people are not going be to buying 2. Furthermore, there will be various factors including delays and even competition to that will reduce actual sales. I think the actual sales will be 75k to 100k of the 280k orders (about 1/3rd realization). There would have would've been far fewer reservations had the deposit been nonrefundable. But that would've landed Tesla in legal trouble because they cannot deliver as promised.

And is the Model 3 really a game changer? The numbers aren't that big for it to be. There have been 464k Ford Mustangs sold in the past 5 years.

 

[jmueller065]

Also that 280k reserved buyers for the Model 3 is bullshit. There was a limit of 2 per person. Most people are not going be to buying 2. Furthermore, there will be various factors including delays and even competition to that will reduce actual sales. I think the actual sales will be 75k to 100k of the 280k orders (about 1/3rd realization). There would have would've been far fewer reservations had the deposit been nonrefundable. But that would've landed Tesla in legal trouble because they cannot deliver as promised.

And is the Model 3 really a game changer? The numbers aren't that big for it to be. There have been 464k Ford Mustangs sold in the past 5 years.

So you are saying 100K+ people are willing to hand over to Tesla $1k for them to hold it only to get it back later? Its not like a bank; they aren't getting interest and $1k is a hefty price to pay simply to say "Yeah I've got a model 3 on reserve". (e.g. that seems like a high number of people with that kind of pocket change to simply throw $1k around like its nothing.)

Even if they only sell 100K out of the reserves it still is a game changer in that it proves Ford (and the other big 3 OEM's) wrong with their "nobody wants an EV" attitudes. Even if 100K over a few years doesn't meet Mustang sales levels it would still beat all other EV sales...

 

[damania]

100k out of 300k is 1/3rd realization which is my estimate. . Cheers.

 

[oilerlord]

Also that 280k reserved buyers for the Model 3 is bullshit...And is the Model 3 really a game changer? The numbers aren't that big for it to be. There have been 464k Ford Mustangs sold in the past 5 years.

What's BS about it? This isn't merely a non-committal waiting list...it's people making a real $1,000 deposit on the car. While it's true some may change their minds and get their deposits refunded, I believe the majority of people that made a deposit were excited to do so, and will follow through with their purchase. The last time I saw this amount of excitement at a product launch was when Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.

When Ford came out with the Mustang in 1964, it was a game changer and became an incredible sales success. An affordable sports car for the masses that captured imaginations. The same thing is happening with the Model 3.

 

[hybridbear]

If you go to the Ford website, they are offering a three year 31,500 mile lease at 237/month with 882 due at signing, call it roughly 260/month allocating the 882, a little over $9K over three years. In reality, you can probably get a much better deal than the nationally advertised offer plus depending on where you live there may be local government money.

The paradigm of "I keep my cars for a long time" doesn't work well with EVs. They degrade, and better ones are constantly being offered.

I can't tell you how happy I am that the leases on my FFE and my Volts are expiring over the next 15 months. I get to replace them with newer, better models, probably at lower payments.

Sadly, it appears that my payments will be going up, no matter what EV replaces my FFE. I've been paying $261/month for the FFE and the only money I put down was license plate costs. Granted, this is because I took over a lease for someone else who had traded in a beater car as their down payment. Because I imported a leased vehicle from another state I didn't have to pay MN sales tax in addition to the NY sales tax paid when the lease was signed. There's no way I'll get such a good deal again. So now my conundrum is, if I'd have to pay close to $100 more per month to get a similarly equipped Leaf with the 100 mile HVB, why wouldn't I just buy a CPO Model S?

 

[Pearl]

The least expensive Pre-Owned Model S I see on their site is $900/ month with $6K+ down.
Considerably more than a new 100 mile LEAF.

 

[campfamily]

The least expensive Pre-Owned Model S I see on their site is $900/ month with $6K+ down.
Considerably more than a new 100 mile LEAF.

I wasn't able to get the Tesla website to show any pre-owned Teslas, even when I removed all of the filters (location, color, model, etc). Not sure if the website isn't working right, or they just don't have any. The least expensive lease I could find for a new one was around $800/month with $6K down. I find it amusing that for the purchase, the payment they show is your car payment minus the anticipated fuel savings.....not real transparent, if you ask me.

If I could get a CPO Model S for $360/month, I think my FFE would be up for sale!!

Keith