Gas prices tumbling...good time to buy an EV?

[michael]

With gas prices falling so much (yesterday I saw under $3 in California where not long ago it was occasionally over $4) I think the demand for EV's will fall. People will go back to their trucks and SUV's. Accordingly, it may be a good time to get a good deal on an EV or PHEV.

My fleet is full so I can't take advantage of this, but maybe someone else out there could consider swapping an ICE in the family for a PHEV at least....

 

[jeffand]

This is only going to last for a short period of time. This because for some oil producers $80 a barrel is below their production cost. So they will cut production in the hopes of forcing up prices. This will take time. We should see a correction some time in the 1st or 2nd quarter of next year. By this time next year oil prices should be close to $95 a barrel. Will it go back over $100 barrel again? Yes, it's just a matter of time before that happens. Higher prices can be driven by supply and demand, or inflation.

 

[hybridbear]

I agree that low gas prices will unfortunately cause people to buy gas guzzling vehicles. For example a coworker just bought a new SUV commenting that gas prices being so low right now as the primary reason why she bought an SUV and not a car. She almost always drives just herself in the vehicle. She was going to buy a seven passenger SUV, but her daughters convinced her that she didn't need a seven passenger SUV to drive by herself. So she bought a five passenger SUV. It doesn't mske sense.

 

[jmueller065]

So she bought a five passenger SUV.

At least that is something. Going from a 7 to 5 could possibly be a 5-10 mpg improvement (our Escape gets 30 mpg on the highway, unheard of for any SUV just a few years ago).

 

[Rogerschro]

I have a gas station right across from me and everyday I see the price and I think "That is how much I DON"T have to spend on gas!"
Low prices don't mean a thing when The cost of owning and driving an FFE are still Much lower than an ICE. I think of it as a Savings indicator, when prices are high I save a lot, when they are low I save a bit less, but I still save compared to those who have to buy gas. Win-Win.

 

[michael]

Right, I'm not suggesting this is a good time to buy an ICE, but rather that a lot of people will do so depressing the sales of EVs and PHEVs. So I'm suggesting this might be a good time to get the next EV or PHEV.

 

[WattsUp]

a coworker just bought a new SUV commenting that gas prices being so low right now as the primary reason why she bought an SUV and not a car.

So, a momentary lull in the price of a commodity (that has historically gone ever upwards) is her rationale for making a multi-year long investment in a vehicle that is reliant on that commodity?

 

[NightHawk]

I have a gas station right across from me and everyday I see the price and I think "That is how much I DON"T have to spend on gas!"
Low prices don't mean a thing when The cost of owning and driving an FFE are still Much lower than an ICE. I think of it as a Savings indicator, when prices are high I save a lot, when they are low I save a bit less, but I still save compared to those who have to buy gas. Win-Win.

Yep, I figure gas prices would have to get well under $1/gal to compete with my FFE energy cost. Don't think gas prices will ever get that low again.
Also I like driving an electric car for many other reasons than just saving on fuel costs. Less maintenance and no more dmog checks, oil changes, etc is an even bigger reason for me. Plus its just more fun and clean to drive than an ICE. I feel like I'm driving a futuristic car like I've seen in some movies and TV shows about the future.

 

[hybridbear]

a coworker just bought a new SUV commenting that gas prices being so low right now as the primary reason why she bought an SUV and not a car.

So, a momentary lull in the price of a commodity (that has historically gone ever upwards) is her rationale for making a multi-year long investment in a vehicle that is reliant on that commodity?

Yes! It's such foolish reasoning! And she's an accountant so she should have an understanding of these concepts! And he last car was a 2003 Honda Pilot which she has been driving for 11 years and she plans to keep her new Acura for a similar amount of time. This type of strange reasoning goes right to Michael's point in starting this thread. Many people reason this way even though it is very faulty.

So she bought a five passenger SUV.

At least that is something. Going from a 7 to 5 could possibly be a 5-10 mpg improvement (our Escape gets 30 mpg on the highway, unheard of for any SUV just a few years ago).

She had a 2003 Honda Pilot before and now she has an 2014 Acura MDX. The Acura gets 4 MPG better per EPA estimates but also requires premium gas.

According to FuelEconomy.gov, each mile driven in her new Acura costs about four times as much in fuel as each mile we drive in the Focus Electric.

 

[jmueller065]

LOL! I wasn't justifying the purchase just pointing out that at least she chose the lesser of two evils

 

[EVA]

Have you all noticed how awful gas stations smell? Now that I don't regularly go to a gas station, I've realized how horrible they smell. The amount of pollution from those things!

 

[hybridbear]

An article I read today about the falling price of gasoline cited the CEO of Caterpillar as saying: "If oil prices stay between $75 and $95 a barrel, we would see the kind of stimulus package that the Federal Reserve or Congress could never do." The article went on to say: "Middle to lower income consumers will likely benefit the most, since gasoline is a requirement for most workers to get to and from their jobs. Spending 50 cents a gallon less for fuel gives these consumers a little breathing room in their monthly budgets, which have been constrained in recent years by stagnant wages."

Unfortunately as EV drivers we are not benefitting from lower gas prices giving us extra room in our budget and that is disappointing.

 

[jmueller065]

Unfortunately as EV drivers we are not benefitting from lower gas prices giving us extra room in our budget and that is disappointing.

But you are already benefitting the lower cost of EV driving compared to ICE driving--even with the lower gas prices.

 

[hybridbear]

Unfortunately as EV drivers we are not benefitting from lower gas prices giving us extra room in our budget and that is disappointing.

But you are already benefitting the lower cost of EV driving compared to ICE driving--even with the lower gas prices.

But our costs aren't now decreasing. This hurts the payback period of switching to an EV and perhaps even means it would have been better financially to not have an EV.

I hope gas prices rise again soon and that the government takes advantage of low gas prices right now to greatly increase gas taxes to fix the crumbling infrastructure in this country.

 

[jmueller065]

But our costs aren't now decreasing.

Yes and no.
No: Once you obtain an EV your cost to operate it is pretty fixed: Most people's electricity rates don't change as often as gas prices (especially for those of us on a TOD contracted rate).
Yes: Over the years the cost to obtain and operate an EV has steadily fallen. As an example all manufacturers (except Tesla) have been dropping the price of their EV on a yearly basis.
If I were to lease an FFE today: I would be paying significantly less (~$100/month) for the exact same car I leased 1.5 years ago.

 

[michael]

But our costs aren't now decreasing.

Yes and no.
No: Once you obtain an EV your cost to operate it is pretty fixed: Most people's electricity rates don't change as often as gas prices (especially for those of us on a TOD contracted rate).
Yes: Over the years the cost to obtain and operate an EV has steadily fallen. As an example all manufacturers (except Tesla) have been dropping the price of their EV on a yearly basis.
If I were to lease an FFE today: I would be paying significantly less (~$100/month) for the exact same car I leased 1.5 years ago.

That's a fact. The residual at the end of my lease (3 years, 58,000 miles) is about the same as the price I would pay out of pocket for a brand new FFE today.

But I do agree it's a little demoralizing to watch gas prices fall. I don't feel as smug as I did a while back.

 

[WattsUp]

But I do agree it's a little demoralizing to watch gas prices fall. I don't feel as smug as I did a while back.

I do. Regardless of what gasoline costs, I know my EV uses about four times less energy (at least) to do the same thing all the gas-guzzlers all around me are doing.

I mean, cripes, their fuel needs to be brought to them in boats and trucks before they even begin burning it! And, even then, most of the potential energy is wasted as heat.

 

[TexaCali]

As stated by others, gas prices will go back up.

But it is interesting when gas cost <$3 a gallon and some commercial EV charging stations charge $0.40/kWh! That means you are paying $13.48 per gallon for "electric gas" (using the EPA's 33.7kWh = 1 gallon of gas) ! If your EV gets 100MPGe - then your energy cost is $0.13 per mile (if you charge at the outrageous $0.40/kWh). Now assume you have an ICE care that gets 30 mpg. With gas at $3 your energy cost is $0.10 per mile! Now there are certainly cars that get better than 30 mpg (and those that don't), and at the moment you can buy gas for less than $3 /gal.

While this is an interesting inversion, most of us charge at home for far less than $0.40/kWh (more like $0.10/kWh or less), and no one expects gas prices to stay this low. And I don't miss going to gas stations at all!

 

[davideos]

Something is off. If $0.40/KWh equates to $13.48/gallon of gas, then $0.10 is $3.37/gallon of ev gas.

Here's how I do it...an ICE focus gets about 25mi/gallon. It takes 3 gallons of gas to go 75mi, the approximate range of the FFE. AT $0.40/KWh, it will take 23KWhs to fill the FFE to go 75mi; (FFE only uses 80% of the battery, but charging isn't 100% efficient), or 23 X $0.40 = $9.20. So at $3/gallon, it costs about the same to drive an ICE Focus as it does an FFE...not counting incidentals like oil changes and other maintenance.

If you charge at $0.10/KWh, it costs 1/4 the cost to drive gas. If you end up paying $0.40/KWh, no big deal if it is only an occasional occurrence.

 

[michael]

As stated by others, gas prices will go back up.

But it is interesting when gas cost <$3 a gallon and some commercial EV charging stations charge $0.40/kWh! That means you are paying $13.48 per gallon for "electric gas" (using the EPA's 33.7kWh = 1 gallon of gas) ! If your EV gets 100MPGe - then your energy cost is $0.13 per mile (if you charge at the outrageous $0.40/kWh). Now assume you have an ICE care that gets 30 mpg. With gas at $3 your energy cost is $0.10 per mile! Now there are certainly cars that get better than 30 mpg (and those that don't), and at the moment you can buy gas for less than $3 /gal.

While this is an interesting inversion, most of us charge at home for far less than $0.40/kWh (more like $0.10/kWh or less), and no one expects gas prices to stay this low. And I don't miss going to gas stations at all!

That's about right. And that's why it makes no sense to charge a Volt or Energi at a paid public charging station...just as cheap or cheaper and a lot easier to use a little gasoline.

My Volt gets nearly 40 MPG on gasoline, 7.5 cents/mile at $3/gallon. If I use a public charger at $1/hour, it's 35 cents/kWH, 9 cents/mile. The wimpy 3kW charger on the Volt is a pain.

For BEV's, yes it's not a bargain to use paid charging, but rather a convenience to get enough extra charge to be able to use the car for the other 80 miles. Like paying $2 for a soft drink at the gas station...much cheaper at the grocery store, but it's cold and you want it. Even if I have to pay $2/hour to charge and I really need it, no worries.