new Tesla Model 3 looks like Focus Electric!

[electrons]

Looks like a Focus! They 'officially' unveil it tonight, but some spy took that photo.

So here's what we do: Remove the Ford badging and place Tesla badges on our Focus Electrics, BEFORE the Model 3 comes out (like 2+ years to wait). People will think its a Model 3!

I may see a real one around here. Almost all manufacturers do high-altitude testing here in the Rockies, and I've seen a lot of vehicles a year or so before they are sold running around Mt. Evans, etc. here.

 

[electrons]

I think the size will be the same, looks that way:

 

[jmueller065]

I think its bigger as Elon said: "Seats 5 comfortably" (in an apparent dig on the Chevy Bolt).

 

[WattsUp]

Almost all manufacturers do high-altitude testing here in the Rockies

Maybe not likely?

Gas-powered cars are tested at high-altitude because the level of oxygen and air density affects combustion. But, why would an electric car be affected by altitude?

Maybe they would test EVs on inclines, in colder weather, handling on mountain roads, etc. but the high-altitude would not actually be important for any of that testing in the same way it is for ICE testing.

 

[electrons]

WattsUp, another engineer friend of mine once did thermal cooling analysis on Prius power electronics. You'd be surprised as to what he had to say about the lowered cooling performance of heat exchangers going up mountains at continuous max power at reduced air density (less mass flow). I2R heating. Hot day, high elevation (thin air) testing is important too. True, no air-fuel and emissions calibrations though. Also, quick elevation changes on seals is kind of a thing.

I've seen Hyundai, Honda, Chevy, Fiat, Ford, Toyota not-for-sale-yet cars up in the mountains over the last few years. You could test all the heat exchange performance you want on a dyno, with a wind tunnel, with low baro pressure in a chamber, to do the same thing. Most car makers have found its easier just to run them up a mountain a few times.

Back to the thread's actual subject: Elon Musk is 6'2'' (74") tall, and here he is walking in front of Model 3 prototype for scale (perspective is tricky though):

Looks like the car is wide. Our Focus Electric is 72" wide, and this one looks similar.

 

[WattsUp]

Back to the thread's actual subject: Elon Musk is 6'2'' (74") tall, and here he is walking in front of Model 3 prototype for scale.

I love it... the Musk unit of measurement.

"Have you seen to the new Telsa?"

"Yeah, it's 2.5 Musks long and can go 150,000 Musks between charges!"

 

[electrons]

Turn Musk sideways in the picture above (using paper or your finger/thumb), and fit it between the front wheel fenders. I think its very close to the Focus's 72", even trying to account for some perspective.

Time will tell, but this thing isn't a big car. By this time the width should be set in stone, basic structure already designed mostly.

 

[jmueller065]

By this time the width should be set in stone, basic structure already designed mostly.

Didn't say it was a "big" car, simply said it was "bigger than the FFE".

Take a look at some of the first ride videos taken from the back seat:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1nUapJ-GW0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wM0-tKOsbNw

There are quite a few on youtube. In many of them you can see three full sized adults sitting in the back seat. Not sure I could ever get 3 adults in the back seat of my FFE (nor my ICE Focus). I can, however, fit 3 adults in my wife's Escape and my C-Max--both of which are the same platform as the Focus but slightly larger dimensions).

Edit: Well perhaps it isn't much bigger than a Focus. Here is an Engadget article about the ride which includes this quote:

On stage, CEO Elon Musk said the car would fit five passengers. Like most sedans, it's more like four adults and child or very short, petite friend. I saw them cram five journalists in a car, it wasn't something you'd want to recreate on a long drive. Still, since there's no engine under the hood or in the trunk, the automaker was able to move the seats out. At six-foot three inches, I was comfortable in the back seat, which is something I don't get to say very often in a mid-size sedan.

 

[GladeStorm]

In the forums they've been analyzing the sideview PR photos (using the wheel size as a reference). Consensus is that the overall length is about 168" making it about 5" shorter than the Focus. The key is that the wheelbase is about 118" - about 14" more than the Focus. By bob-tailing the front and back extra space is allotted to the passengers. Height seem to be 3 to 4 inches shorter.

 

[electrons]

In the forums they've been analyzing the sideview PR photos (using the wheel size as a reference). Consensus is that the overall length is about 168" making it about 5" shorter than the Focus. The key is that the wheelbase is about 118" - about 14" more than the Focus. By bob-tailing the front and back extra space is allotted to the passengers. Height seem to be 3 to 4 inches shorter.

I thought about doing the wheel size method too. Do we know what size the wheel diameter is? 17"---to---20" would be my guess. Need that info more precisely. Edit: I just read where someone was sure they used 20" wheels, OK.....

About bob-tailing (shortening rear overhang on a longer wheelbase): Tesla Model 3 may have very little rear trunk space, since the differential and electric motor back there are pushed closer to the rear bumper than in a Model S. Good front trunk ("frunk") space though.

 

[electrons]

Also, Tesla Model 3 pre-orders are near 300,000 units. They have a lot of faith to put $1,000 down on a car that is several years away, especially the people above 100,000+, as its going to take a few years to get to producing those later ones.

Car and Driver magazine says the Model 3 is the size of a Mazda3.
That puts it as almost identical to a Ford Focus Electric.
http://www.caranddriver.com/news/2018-tesla-model-3-photos-and-info-news

Guess it would not have been as exciting if Tesla just bought empty Mazda3 or Focus shells to add their motor/batteries to. Similar to what Magna did to our Focus Electrics. And similar to what Tesla is doing right now by supplying the current Mercedes B-Class BEVs with motors and batteries.

 

[pjam3]

Musk and Tesla are what Apple used to be not that long ago. People wait in line, maybe even pay more for something, just because. It's almost like a cult following now. The Model S was and is a great car, great design. Changed and disrupted certain aspects of the industry. Not sure about the Model X as it's taken far too long and most people still haven't received one yet. And the S & X are niche products that only the wealthy would ever buy anyway. It's more for show than anything else. And, at least the S, great cars that happen to be electric.

The Model 3 looks ok, but as others have said, it doesn't exactly look much different than an FFE. And to get where they need to be to produce 300K+, it's going to be a far different car and experience than the S or X. Great branding and marketing, but how many people are going to wait 2-4 years to get one? And the entire first 200K sold only qualify for the tax credit aspect, well, what happens to the people who don't get it till after they sold 200K?

 

[jmueller065]

And the entire first 200K sold only qualify for the tax credit aspect, well, what happens to the people who don't get it till after they sold 200K?

Its actually far less than 200k. The 200k count towards the total number of EV's produced by the manufacturer. Since Tesla only makes EVs you have to subtract the total Model S and Model X sales from the 200k.

Thus it will be something more like 100k model 3 buyers will get the federal refund.

 

[FFEsquared]

Musk and Tesla are what Apple used to be not that long ago. People wait in line, maybe even pay more for something, just because.

The Model 3 looks ok, but as others have said, it doesn't exactly look much different than an FFE.

Great branding and marketing, but how many people are going to wait 2-4 years to get one?

I am hoping to pay less for a better car than what looks to be available, unlike apple products. I am thinking Model 3 compared to a Bolt. The X and S don't really have a real competitor like the original iPhone so no real way to compare value. I think the 3 will be much better value than a Bolt.

I like the 3 looks much better than the Bolt. I like the looks of the FFE more.

I waited two years for another car once. I gave $5,000 to a dealership to hold my place in line for a car from a foreign country with a much less stable financial history than Tesla. It was quite the feeling to be the first customer for a Lotus Elise in my state. I was a little nervous though when the dealership changed owners halfway through the wait.

I remain skeptical and hope it works out. It needs to be 210 or more mile range, less expensive than a Bolt and 0-60 in 6 or under. Otherwise I'm going to go another direction.

 

[breeves002]

I reserved one. Doubt I'll buy it, but the grand is refundable. We shall see. I'm really curious if Tesla can even pull this one off in a year and a half. They're going to loose a killing at first.

I hope the front end is changed and the interior is changed. I hate both. The stupid touch screen is just plain stupid. I like the way the current Tesla's are and hope they keep it similar. The front is so ugly though (so is the FFE though) they need to fix it.

 

[electrons]

“About 116,000 plug-in cars were sold in the U.S. in all of 2015. Tesla just pre-sold more than double that in 24 hrs,” said Max Zanan -- http://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2016/04/03/tesla-model-3-first-ride-yes-tesla-will-sell-a-ton/#4dab86da3893

I reserved one. Doubt I'll buy it, but the grand is refundable. We shall see. I'm really curious if Tesla can even pull this one off in a year and a half. They're going to loose a killing at first.

I almost did too! Came close. Congrats, and its not really that much money to put out there. .... I'm too happy with my FFE, and I kind of like the present and future prospects for the pug-ugly (admittedly) BMW i3, with its sultry carbon-composite body and skateboard-aluminum lower chassis to be the #300,000th Tesla Model 3 prospect, 4 years out in line behind a bunch of hipsters.

Tesla Model 3 should compete with what the BMW i3 does, at least a little, in the area of carbon-composite (CFRP), for the upper part of the car to keep the cg even lower. Sounds like the Model 3 will be steel-aluminum, lower cost anyway, a compromise.

I hope the front end is changed and the interior is changed. I hate both. The stupid touch screen is just plain stupid. I like the way the current Tesla's are and hope they keep it similar. The front is so ugly though (so is the FFE though) they need to fix it.

That touch screen you mentioned is a big safety hazard. Surfing the net on a big screen while driving? Bad news. NHTSA might get them to cut down on that. Just too much already! Might as well read the newspaper while driving. ... Ugly styling? Not many would agree with you I'll bet.

I remain skeptical and hope it works out. It needs to be 210 or more mile range, less expensive than a Bolt and 0-60 in 6 or under. Otherwise I'm going to go another direction.

It'll be plenty fast, test drives already showing that:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wM0-tKOsbNw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16SWVS56aZU

 

[damania]

And the entire first 200K sold only qualify for the tax credit aspect, well, what happens to the people who don't get it till after they sold 200K?

Its actually far less than 200k. The 200k count towards the total number of EV's produced by the manufacturer. Since Tesla only makes EVs you have to subtract the total Model S and Model X sales from the 200k.

Thus it will be something more like 100k model 3 buyers will get the federal refund.

It's even way less than 100k. The next 3 years, thy're going to keep pumping out S and Xs - Another 100k bringing the count to over $200k!!! That leaves only a handful of tax credits for Model 3 purchasers and the early ones will be previous S/X owners anyways. That $35k car won't reach $25k for most people. And most people will choose the $42k-$45k version. There will be a 1/2 to 1/4 (of the $7500) federal tax credit, but even that is limited to half a year or even a quarter each.

2012 - 2,650
2013 - 22,477
2014 - 31,655
2015 - 33,174
Total S models so far: 89,956

Let's say 2016 and 2017 and 2018 they sell 40,000 S/X cars. That's 80,000 for 2016+2017 and 20000 for half of 2018 = 100k + 90k = 190k S/Xes sold under tax credit. How many Es will be able to take advantage of the tax credit in 2018? All of them but at 1/2 to 1/4 of the $7500.

This puts the 3 at a disadvantage against other car companies in pricing. Would you rather buy a close to 200 mile Leaf/FFE (they will be in 3-5 years) or Bolt for $20k or a Model 3 for $35k?

 

[michael]

The easy call is a Bolt, less than a year from now, maybe $35K well optioned.

You will be halfway through the Bolt's lease before you see any significant number of Models 3 on the road, possibly all the way through the lease before you can get your hands on one at the claimed low price.

With a quarter million people seeming to be lining up for the car, no way Tesla will sell anything but "fully loaded" cars til the clamor dies down.

My guess is that a huge number of people who got on the waiting list did so with the intention of reselling their place in line for a profit.

 

[damania]

The smartest thing to do is buy a fully loaded E so as to take advantage of the tax credit.

 

[pjam3]

I wonder how fast they will actually be able to deliver. I know a few people who are like #600 on the Model X order list and have been waiting for a couple years and they are nowhere near getting even a date of expected delivery yet. And like i said, if Tesla were shipping out that many Model X's already, these guys would have heard some real delivery data as they were #600 and even more than that, the one guy owned a Roadster so he was an early adopter at that. If they aren't getting much on when to expect an X, I highly doubt most others are getting them.

Obviously the Model X is a different car and there are some issues, but Tesla also has never mass produced a car. They can't even deliver 1000 Model X's on time yet, much less 300K+ cheaper models. And cheaper models, while not having the bells and whistles, have a far different user base. A 6-12 month delay might kill half the potential buyers whereas the Model X, I really don't know many who would ever cancel, even if it were 3 years. So far different audiences.

While I think the __ Bolt looks 'cheap', it probably is far easier for them to mass produce 300K cars and actually know how to do that vs Tesla who can't even get 1000+ Model X cars out in a few years(they are way behind on the announced data as it is).