200+ Mile Electric Car from Ford

[wrongway]

Rumors starting to circulate about a possible announcement of a new electric car from ford......

http://www.theverge.com/2015/3/3/8140299/ford-electric-car-200-mile-range

 

[hybridbear]

This article has no sources. I'd like to believe that it's coming, but when an article is published with no sources it's just rubbish.

 

[jmueller065]

Both articles (The Verge, and Automobilemag.com) are full of speculation and more information about the Chevy Bolt than anything.

But its been a bit over a year since the last "big" Ford plugin rumors (remember last winter when "Focus Energi" rumors were rampant) so this just seems to be the periodical thing trying to keep Ford in the EV game. I'm not buying it until I see metal.

 

[jeffand]

Inside EVs Just posted this article.
Ford To Unveil 200-Mile Chevy Bolt Competitor Later This Year.
http://insideevs.com/ford-unveil-200-mile-chevy-bolt-competitor-later-year/

I really hope that this becomes a reality.
My take.
Apparently LG chemical is manufacturing a battery that has close to 80% higher charge density than cells use in the FFE. This means more Kwh in the same space. Ford will need to develop a dedicated platform for this vehicle. One were most of the batteries are moved under the floor. Climate control should also incorporate a Heat pump for cabin heating. Level 3 charging should also be added to this list. I think Ford had something under development but it wasn’t quite ready. I suspect they are using the Focus platform for technology development. I suspect Ford is in the alpha phase of the vehicle development. I suspect that the Chevy Bolt at the Detroit auto show was an alpha phase vehicle, or a prototype. The Bolt was a proof of concept, not a preproduction vehicle. It’s likely that the production Bolt will be significantly different. The Volt on the other hand is a late beta or preproduction vehicle. I suspect what Ford is going to roll out will be a late alpha, early Beta vehicle.

 

[jmueller065]

That Inside EVs article quotes the same Automobile magazine article...simply more speculation. Nothing concrete.

yawn

(Sorry if I seem a bit jaded but Ford has barely admitted that the BEV market even exists for the past few years and I'm feeling a bit burned after the many rumors last year of all the plugins that Ford was going to do which never happened--not even a peep from Ford. So forgive me but until I see a production vehicle from Ford I'm not going to believe it--even if they roll out a prototype it will probably be duct taped together and have nothing under the hood.)

 

[damania]

It's all dependent on the battery and most of the EVs are using the same source for their batteries - LG Chem in South Korea. It's not a stretch to imagine the doubling of battery capacity within the same footprint every 3-5 years. Everyone is using the 200 mile figure because LG will have such a battery out for all the manufacturers by then. Right now BMW, Nissan, Ford, Kia, etc are all within 75-90 mile range with the same sourced LG batteries.

I cannot imagine charging 200 miles on L2 however. That's like charging on today's L1.

 

[NightHawk]

I cannot imagine charging 200 miles on L2 however. That's like charging on today's L1.

not quite. L1 for a full charge on a FFE now is ~20hrs, L2@30A ~3.5hrs
So for a 200mile battery a full charge with L2@30A ~8hrs, could be less with L2@40A if supported ~6hrs
That works for an overnight home charge whereas a 20hr L1 charge currently doesn't completely.
Plus rarely would a full charge be needed with a 200mile range car assuming most days you don't use even half that.

 

[damania]

I cannot imagine charging 200 miles on L2 however. That's like charging on today's L1.

not quite. L1 for a full charge on a FFE now is ~20hrs, L2@30A ~3.5hrs
So for a 200mile battery a full charge with L2@30A ~8hrs, could be less with L2@40A if supported ~6hrs
That works for an overnight home charge whereas a 20hr L1 charge currently doesn't completely.
Plus rarely would a full charge be needed with a 200mile range car assuming most days you don't use even half that.

L2 is fine for the home (with overnight charging) and realistically the home can't really have any more amps being pushed thru the existing electrical, but being out on the road, L3 will have to be the norm. I'm still using L1 at my home and I am fine with it.

 

[jmueller065]

Now Ford has commented:

“We do not comment on speculation but can confirm these reports are not accurate”- Ford spokesperson

Update is on the Inside EVs article:
http://insideevs.com/ford-unveil-200-mile-chevy-bolt-competitor-later-year/

LOL! Read into that what you will!

Wow: This article shines a brighter light on Ford's attitude towards plugins in general:
http://insideevs.com/ford-focus-performance-electric-drive-technology/

 

[hybridbear]

Green Car Reports has an article today.

I put more faith in their reporting because they say that they spoke to industry sources. While the sources can't go on record, they did at least talk to sources. The earlier articles gave no indication of doing any more research than one of us might do before posting a topic online saying we think Ford is making a 200 mile BEV.

 

[jmueller065]

That article is much more reasonable and even at the end they say: "Take this with a grain of salt".

I think Green Car Reports is correct that Ford had a huge "oh crap!" moment when GM started pushing the Bolt. Apparently they can't read the writing on the wall...LOL.

 

[pjam3]

I think a 200+ mile EV will need to be made otherwise it just looks dumb. Yeah it's a small market, but if Tesla makes a decent 200+ Mile EV and GM does, people will buy it. The Leaf is a pretty popular car for an EV. And in California you see more Leafs than Prius's. So there is a market, a small one, but still a market for EVs and as soon as a 200 mile EV comes out, every other EV or even Plug-In will be left in the dust.

Who would purchase a 70 Mile Leaf or FFE or i3 if you can get a 200 Mile Tesla or GM Spark for around the same price ? People look at this the wrong way. It's not about autos or cars or manufacturing, its about technology. Nobody buys a Version 1 IPhone or Android Phone anymore. Why would you? Same will happen for EVs. Why would you buy a Version 1 or 2 EV if by 2020 the battery life is so much better and the cars are so much better? I mean the Roadster served a niche, but the Model S is such a better EV and car it's not funny. There would be no point in spending around $30K on some 2016 FFE that gets 70 miles if you can get a Tesla Model Whatever for $35K that gets 200 miles. Only Ford fanboys would argue against that.

 

[damania]

I'm hoping the battery is upgradable on the FFE to 120-150 miles. That would really be sufficient. Maybe after market?

Also, I don't believe the early timelines of these manufacturers. I doubt the 200 mile car is going to come out earlier than 3 years from now.

 

[michael]

I'm hoping the battery is upgradable on the FFE to 120-150 miles. That would really be sufficient. Maybe after market?

Also, I don't believe the early timelines of these manufacturers. I doubt the 200 mile car is going to come out earlier than 3 years from now.

I'm with you on that. My guess 3+ years for the Bolt, longer yet for Ford's effort since they only got the clue last month.

Maybe Nissan? They could surprise us.

 

[v_traveller]

Ford already has a 200 mile EV!

 

[hybridbear]

Who would purchase a 70 Mile Leaf or FFE or i3 if you can get a 200 Mile Tesla or GM Spark for around the same price ? People look at this the wrong way. It's not about autos or cars or manufacturing, its about technology. Nobody buys a Version 1 IPhone or Android Phone anymore. Why would you? Same will happen for EVs. Why would you buy a Version 1 or 2 EV if by 2020 the battery life is so much better and the cars are so much better? I mean the Roadster served a niche, but the Model S is such a better EV and car it's not funny. There would be no point in spending around $30K on some 2016 FFE that gets 70 miles if you can get a Tesla Model Whatever for $35K that gets 200 miles. Only Ford fanboys would argue against that.

Many people currently buy the iPhone 5s since it's less expensive than the 6. I think that there will always be a market for lower range EVs at a lower price. For us, it's all about the cost for the additional range. If I had the option of 100 miles for $20k, 150 miles for $25k or 200 miles for $30k I would probably choose the 100 mile or 150 mile car. For our driving patterns a 100 mile EV would alleviate the range anxiety and close calls we've had this winter and a 150 mile EV would allow us to skip driving the Fusion Energi a handful of times a year and save 10-15 gallons annually. A 200 mile EV would rarely allow us to take additional trips all electric and thus would not justify the extra cost. But, that's our personal situation, not a representation of the mass market.

 

[jeffand]

Many people currently buy the iPhone 5s since it's less expensive than the 6. I think that there will always be a market for lower range EVs at a lower price. For us, it's all about the cost for the additional range. If I had the option of 100 miles for $20k, 150 miles for $25k or 200 miles for $30k I would probably choose the 100 mile or 150 mile car. For our driving patterns a 100 mile EV would alleviate the range anxiety and close calls we've had this winter and a 150 mile EV would allow us to skip driving the Fusion Energi a handful of times a year and save 10-15 gallons annually. A 200 mile EV would rarely allow us to take additional trips all electric and thus would not justify the extra cost. But, that's our personal situation, not a representation of the mass market.

I think your price estimates are a little to optimistic.
The prices are more likely to be 100 miles for $25k, 150 miles for $30k or 200 miles for $35k.
But for this to happen a lot of buyers will have to step up to the plate. It's a lot harder to push down cost when sales volume is low.

 

[EVA]

I like hybridbear's point though. If the pricing starts at $20,000 $25,000, or $30,000 it doesn't matter. How much more money would you pay for 100, 150, and 200 mile range? The choice will never be quite that simple. However it is great to think of optioning up the 100 mile car to 150 or to 200 miles for $5000 a step.

Would you pay $10,000 more for 100 more miles of range?

Tesla did it originally - 40KW, 60KW, and 85KW batteries were available. They figured out very quickly, nobody wanted the 40 (and probably figured the range was too short for the money paid - I think they were right around $50,000). There are very few 60KW cars around. The step up is $10,000 to the 85. And that buys you 60 more miles of range ($70,000 vs $80,000). There's another bonus in the 85 - you get supercharging for free. You have to option up the 60 by about $4000 to get supercharging.

So the real difference is $6,000, roughly for 60 more miles.

 

[hybridbear]

Many people currently buy the iPhone 5s since it's less expensive than the 6. I think that there will always be a market for lower range EVs at a lower price. For us, it's all about the cost for the additional range. If I had the option of 100 miles for $20k, 150 miles for $25k or 200 miles for $30k I would probably choose the 100 mile or 150 mile car. For our driving patterns a 100 mile EV would alleviate the range anxiety and close calls we've had this winter and a 150 mile EV would allow us to skip driving the Fusion Energi a handful of times a year and save 10-15 gallons annually. A 200 mile EV would rarely allow us to take additional trips all electric and thus would not justify the extra cost. But, that's our personal situation, not a representation of the mass market.

I think your price estimates are a little to optimistic.
The prices are more likely to be 100 miles for $25k, 150 miles for $30k or 200 miles for $35k.
But for this to happen a lot of buyers will have to step up to the plate. It's a lot harder to push down cost when sales volume is low.

I was thinking prices after the tax credit. The FFE gets close to 100 miles of range for about $20k after the tax credit. I hope that soon we'll see EVs that really do achieve 100 miles of range for about the price of the current FFE.

I like hybridbear's point though. If the pricing starts at $20,000 $25,000, or $30,000 it doesn't matter. How much more money would you pay for 100, 150, and 200 mile range? The choice will never be quite that simple. However it is great to think of optioning up the 100 mile car to 150 or to 200 miles for $5000 a step.

This was exactly my thinking. Nissan has indicated that the next-gen Leaf will have a variety of battery/range options, similar to Tesla. Maybe Nissan will do something like a 100 mile Leaf for $23k or a 150 mile Leaf with DCQC capability for $29k. Or maybe they'll only offer 3.3 kW charging on the lower range Leaf and force ppl to buy the more expensive one to get 6.6 kW charging. I'm sure Nissan will find ways to push buyers to the more expensive model with more range since they'll almost certainly have higher margins on the higher range cars.

 

[hybridbear]

Tesla did it originally - 40KW, 60KW, and 85KW batteries were available. They figured out very quickly, nobody wanted the 40 (and probably figured the range was too short for the money paid - I think they were right around $50,000). There are very few 60KW cars around. The step up is $10,000 to the 85. And that buys you 60 more miles of range ($70,000 vs $80,000). There's another bonus in the 85 - you get supercharging for free. You have to option up the 60 by about $4000 to get supercharging.

So the real difference is $6,000, roughly for 60 more miles.

Didn't Tesla also plan to install the same battery in the 40 kWh & 60 kWh cars and just limit the 40 kWh cars with software? That means that the 40 kWh car wouldn't really have lower manufacturing costs. I think the 40 kWh model was a publicity stunt designed to allow them to advertise lower prices. I don't think they ever planned to build it, no matter how many orders they got for it.