I've attempted to quantify this by recording the hit every morning before I drive away. To be consistent: I always take the same route for my commute (both ways), I drive at the same time every day, on the last drive of the day I turn off the climate controls (so that it is off in the morning when I start the car), the battery is always full (and has shown a range close to 70 miles) and the car is preconditioned to 85F for the morning commute. I can't control for: the weather, the traffic, and what the car does (see below).
For each day this week I recorded the outside temp as read on the MFT screen, the precondition state of the car, and the mileage hit when I initially turned the climate system on with LO/Low Fan/Defrost (sitting in the driveway before driving).
If the hit was formulaic I would expect the hit to track up and down (or stay constant) with regards to the outside temperature (e.g. if it was colder I would expect a greater hit than when it was warmer). If the hit was based on prior electricity usage by the climate system I would expect the hit to trend downwards throughout the week as I'm not using the heater as much as on the weekends. If the hit is based a little on driving habits I'd expect it to be somewhere in between the two above (but not show a consistent downward trend).
What did I see so far in 4 days?
Code:
Outside Preconditioned Status Hit
6F No* -17
7F Yes -11
20F Yes -7
0F Yes -4
Granted this is only 4 days worth of data but you can see a clear downward trend (upward trend? they are <0 numbers) in the status hit. I was really expecting a bigger hit this morning with the 0F temperatures out.
* = For some reason the car decided it didn't want to precondition itself on Monday (it was having problems syncing up the go times over the weekend and that may have contributed to the issue). In this instance I remote started the car and let it sit for 5 minutes (while still plugged in) and thus this datapoint may have a higher status hit than normal if the car didn't account for the fact that it was plugged in when I remote started it.
4 datapoints isn't really statistically significant but this is the kind of thing I've been observing all winter with the car which led me to think that the status hit is based on prior climate usage.