Cost of operating a Leaf vs a gasoline Ford Focus

[california]

A $32,780 Leaf using $0.1275/kWh is less expensive to drive over a 12 year/12,000 annual mile car lifetime than a $20,000 Ford Focus burning $4/gallon gasoline. About $3,000 cheaper.

Take those number to Europe but use their $6/gallon gas and the cost savings of an EV jumps to $16,000 over the twelve years. Even during the first few years when the vehicle is being paid off the cost difference of owning an EV is modest, starting at about $100 per month and dropping to about $50 a month by the last year of payments. Then the savings flow, big time. Two hundred to three hundred dollars per month.

 

[california]

and another interesting set of comments:

a) who owns a car for more than 12 years???? next to no one..payback needs to be well under 3 years for adoption
b) you’re assuming that over 12 yearrs the batteries won’t need to be replaced - once or even several times
c) people buy cars for more than a ROI and have other well documented concerns
d) many reports including one issued yesterday by Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership concluded that EV get very poor carbon payback marks… nearly 80,000 miles before you would start reducing carbon emissions relative to a similar sized gasoline vehicle
e) there is significant potential for improvement of conventional hydro carbon fueled vehicles and using natural gas which further erodes the need for EVs at least for the next 20-30 years.

What are your thoughts on this? Especially the last comment about the ability to improve gasoline powered vehicles? If vehicles could get 100mpg would you still be interested in a Ford Focus Electric vehicle?

 

[FocusSkeptic]

This debate about EV cost vs. an ICE has always interested me. california states:

a) who owns a car for more than 12 years???? next to no one..payback needs to be well under 3 years for adoption

Yes that is way too long. But the analysis itself seems flawed since 1) neither gas prices are going to stay at $4/gal nor electricity prices at $.12/kWh 2)does it take less brake work and no oil changes into account? 3) Is a $20k Focus the same as a $32k Focus EV? I'm thinking the EV is a fully loaded Focus so the difference is really only $6k. My calculations (using gas increasing $.50/yr and electricty $.02/kWh per year) has savings starting at $125/mon and going to $190/mon by the 7th year and the $6k has been made up in 4yrs (and that excludes the US Gov subsidy of $7.5k). Like to see the details on their calcs...

b) you’re assuming that over 12 yearrs the batteries won’t need to be replaced - once or even several times

If the battery has to be replaced every 4yrs EVs are definitely screwed. My Prius NiCd lasted 7yrs with a little degradation. Hopefully using 80% cycles will keep the LEAF Lithium battery in OK shape.

c) people buy cars for more than a ROI and have other well documented concerns

For Sure!! More comments in later post

 

[FocusSkeptic]

california states:

d) many reports including one issued yesterday by Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership concluded that EV get very poor carbon payback marks… nearly 80,000 miles before you would start reducing carbon emissions relative to a similar sized gasoline vehicle

OK. So I looked at that report and it appears seriously flawed mainly because, like many similar previous studies, it doesn't take off peak charging into account. Off peak charging has zero CO2 emissions since it is using surplus energy already in the grid, so the report active artifically increased the In-Use CO2 emissions for EVs. While not everybody will charge off peak, given proposed charging structures it follows that most owners will do so to save money. So even if CO2 from the battery manufacturing is higher (which I'm not sure I buy), the lifetime CO2 for an EV should be at least 50% of a ICE vehicle if not less.

e) there is significant potential for improvement of conventional hydro carbon fueled vehicles and using natural gas which further erodes the need for EVs at least for the next 20-30 years.

No doubt, but since we're also discovering that natural gas extraction has some major (previously unknown) environmental side effects, I am not sure that is eroding the need for EVs. While it will be fun to see whether the hydrocarbon industry can clean things up, for me the focus should be on US Energy independence not better use of petro chemicals that I have to purchase to fund corrupt governments overseas (which my tax dollars are spent to protect). If we can come up with (clean) US resources to propel our vehicles I'm all over it, but right now electricity looks like the best bet.

 

[evluv]

Great point about off-peak charging. It's using up wasted energy so your electric vehicle is actually reversing CO2 emissions - essentially.

I won't be buying the Ford Focus Electric strictly for financial benefit. The cost savings of the Focus EV are just a bonus for me!

 

[FocusSkeptic]

So I just learned that the US imports most of its oil from Canada, so I guess I need to tone down the "..to fund corrupt governments overseas (which my tax dollars are spent to protect)..." comment.

We import nearly twice as much oil from Canada as #2 Mexico. However, in my view, Canada is the place I'd feel free and safe in the whole top ten oil import countries list, so I don't think my statement isn't totally misguided. For those who are interested:

Source - 1000s of barrels/day
CANADA - 2,193
MEXICO - 1,186
SAUDI ARABIA - 1,107
VENEZUELA - 957
NIGERIA - 840
IRAQ - 382
COLOMBIA - 363
RUSSIA - 314
ALGERIA - 268
ANGOLA - 261

 

[caffeinekid]

and another interesting set of comments:

a) who owns a car for more than 12 years???? next to no one..payback needs to be well under 3 years for adoption
b) you’re assuming that over 12 yearrs the batteries won’t need to be replaced - once or even several times
c) people buy cars for more than a ROI and have other well documented concerns
d) many reports including one issued yesterday by Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership concluded that EV get very poor carbon payback marks… nearly 80,000 miles before you would start reducing carbon emissions relative to a similar sized gasoline vehicle
e) there is significant potential for improvement of conventional hydro carbon fueled vehicles and using natural gas which further erodes the need for EVs at least for the next 20-30 years.

What are your thoughts on this? Especially the last comment about the ability to improve gasoline powered vehicles? If vehicles could get 100mpg would you still be interested in a Ford Focus Electric vehicle?

Frankly, I am no longer interested in gasoline powered vehicles. Maybe I am just a technology zealot, but I have seen enough advancements that it makes me wonder why we are even humouring this mode of thought anymore. It is time to move along. The way I see it, we have had some advances in efficiency over the last few decades, but not enough to outpace ever-increasing demand. And certainly not at the rate it would take to get us near 100mpg anytime soon. Also, NG is STILL a non-renewable resource- hardly the energy savior that certain advocates (read: $$$) make it out to be.

As for the payoff of a Leaf vs. an ICE Focus, I ran the numbers a year or so ago and based on the difference in maintenance costs, the break even point was at ~ 100K miles (4 or 5 years). After that- assuming no problems with the battery components- the Leaf began to cost less than the Focus. And the picture only looked better for the Leaf with potentially higher fuel prices- even with a subsequent increase in KWH price through a utility.

 

[evluv]

If the battery packs on the Ford Focus Electric are anything like the Nissan Leaf, then you should be saving money off of the Ford Focus Electric long before the batter pack needs a replacement.

Plus, I agree that fuel costs will rise and then Focus Electric owners will see savings much sooner than that.