EV's are dead - says Morgan Stanely

[davideos]

For me, gasoline costs vs electricity costs is 8:1 at 15mpg (SUV)...or 2:1 at 60mpg(Hybrid). Rough figures assuming pessimistic circumstances for EV and optimistic for ICE. At 12k miles per year and saving $2/60miles, I save $1,600/year SUV or $400/year vs Hybrid. $16,000 to $4,000 over 10 years.

Considering the economics of the EV, yes, I do save money now...but will a replacement battery be needed? If so, $10k, $15k, or $5k? Yet to be seen. Also, there are other savings...brake pads and oil changes, but what is to be expected.

Bottom line, in my mind, I consider the costs a wash; regardless of the car driven. So with that out of the way, why buy an EV? It doesn't make sense for everybody, that's clear. But if it does, what are the possibilities?
-No stopping at gas stations...except maybe for some air in the tires.
-Very very little scheduled maintenance.
-Carpool lane stickers. Big advantage for me.
-Free charging at work and at some destinations.
-High torque at low RPM (one of my favorite parts)
-Quiet inside and out
-possibly better on the environment (I say "possibly" because I don't know the source of the energy)

What are the disadvantages?
-Long distance travel inconvenient / long "fill-up" times.
-Cost of or inability to install EVSE
-Few to choose from...and most of them are small

Like any consumer good, buy one because it makes sense to you. Don't worry if the car companies are going to make money on it or if the car you choose is being marketed strongly or not. If the market turns sour and EVs are no longer made, the impact to you is zero because your decision was based on what matters to you. I am very optimistic about EVs in the future and as people see more of them, they will open their eyes to the possibilities.

 

[michael]

We traded my wife's Acura for a Volt

Acura 17 mpg in the city; $330/month lease + $200 gas = $550 / mo

Volt $225/month lease zero driveaway + $40/mo electricity = $265/mo (actually the California $1500 will pay for the electricity)

Less than half the cost, no loss of flexibility, comparable amenities, Volt is far more quiet, smooth; deal with gas station very rarely, etc.


I sold my BMW for the FFE (and put $7K in my pocket from the sale)

BMW 24 mpg on the highway, 20K miles/year, $300/mo in gas alone. No payments, since it was old, but risk of very expensive repairs (any BMW repair costs a fortune...brakes maybe $800 for example; valve cover gaskets $1500, and the car had 125K miles so risk of repair was high).

FFE $375/month lease, zero driveaway plus $50 in electricity = $425. California $2500 reduces this by $70/ month, so call it $355. Full warranty, little maintenance. So I drive the FFE for little more than the cost of gas alone in the BMW.

If I need to go somewhere the FFE won't reach, I take the Volt. In either car I get a smooth, quiet ride, the fun of an EV, and in the FFE no gas stations EVER. Even free parking in Santa Monica...


One of my friends had two Acuras and a Prius. Once they saw how well the FFE was working out for me, they traded in all three for three Volts (red, white, and blue!). They are thrilled and will NEVER go back to an ICE or even a hybrid.

The question is why would anyone NOT dump their ICE for an EV or ERV?

I'm not comparing with an SUV, but rather with nice quality, smaller sized sedans. FFE and Volt much more economical.

 

[unplugged]

This is a plain BS argument. Nobody is buying an FFE or Leaf to replace an SUV. And when you start talking about under 20 MPG that's what you're getting.

I replaced my Lincoln Aviator (14 mpg on a good day) with the FFE. So much for that BS argument, huh?

And, as far as your claim that 20 mpg is relegated to SUVs, here are cars with less than 20 mpg: Ford Flex, Dodge Challenger, Dodge Charger, Mitsubishi Eclipse, Honda Odyssey, BMW 5 series, Acura RL, Buick Lucerne, Audi A8, Hyundai Genesis, Chevrolet Impala, BMW 7 Series, Infiniti M, Volvo S80, Mitsubishi Lancer, Mazda RX-8, BMW 3 Series, Mercedes SLK, and really any sports car. I could go on and on, but I've made my point.

These are 2010's because these are the kind of cars that will be replaced by EVs. (And actually, cars that are a bit older will be the likely trade-ins.)

 

[pjam3]

This is a plain BS argument. Nobody is buying an FFE or Leaf to replace an SUV. And when you start talking about under 20 MPG that's what you're getting.

I replaced my Lincoln Aviator (14 mpg on a good day) with the FFE. So much for that BS argument, huh?

And, as far as your claim that 20 mpg is relegated to SUVs, here are cars with less than 20 mpg: Ford Flex, Dodge Challenger, Dodge Charger, Mitsubishi Eclipse, Honda Odyssey, BMW 5 series, Acura RL, Buick Lucerne, Audi A8, Hyundai Genesis, Chevrolet Impala, BMW 7 Series, Infiniti M, Volvo S80, Mitsubishi Lancer, Mazda RX-8, BMW 3 Series, Mercedes SLK, and really any sports car. I could go on and on, but I've made my point.

These are 2010's because these are the kind of cars that will be replaced by EVs. (And actually, cars that are a bit older will be the likely trade-ins.)

It is a BS argument because an FFE isn't an SUV so there are many things you just can't do in it. Trying to claim you will replace your SUV with an FFE is an argument for somebody who also has other cars that do other things. Or somebody who has one to many cars and didn't need the SUV anyway.

I mean I could pack my X5 with my kids, tents, a raft, etc and drive up to Big Bear or to Northern California to go camping. You can't do that in the FFE. The gas mileage sucked in the x5, but this theory that you'll replace it with the FFE just means you were one of those people who bought a big SUV just to show off anyway and didn't need it. Kind of similar to what some people are doing with EVs now.

Nobody who actually uses an SUV for what they are good for is going to replace it with an FFE. It's just a stupid argument. It's like saying, Hey I dumped my 7 seat Mini-van for a small FFE. Yeah makes real sense.

If you were a person who considered the ICE FF to be a replacement over your 15MPG SUV, I can see it as a valid argument. You didn't need the SUV anyway as it was a waste of space. But if you didn't even think about the ICE FF to replace your SUV, than the entire argument is just BS and gets back to the "i'm a hipster" who wants an EV to pretend like i care about the environment. And there are plenty of those idiots running around.

 

[twscrap]

It is a BS argument because an FFE isn't an SUV so there are many things you just can't do in it. Trying to claim you will replace your SUV with an FFE is an argument for somebody who also has other cars that do other things. Or somebody who has one to many cars and didn't need the SUV anyway.

I mean I could pack my X5 with my kids, tents, a raft, etc and drive up to Big Bear or to Northern California to go camping. You can't do that in the FFE. The gas mileage sucked in the x5, but this theory that you'll replace it with the FFE just means you were one of those people who bought a big SUV just to show off anyway and didn't need it. Kind of similar to what some people are doing with EVs now.

Nobody who actually uses an SUV for what they are good for is going to replace it with an FFE. It's just a stupid argument. It's like saying, Hey I dumped my 7 seat Mini-van for a small FFE. Yeah makes real sense.

If you were a person who considered the ICE FF to be a replacement over your 15MPG SUV, I can see it as a valid argument. You didn't need the SUV anyway as it was a waste of space. But if you didn't even think about the ICE FF to replace your SUV, than the entire argument is just BS and gets back to the "i'm a hipster" who wants an EV to pretend like i care about the environment. And there are plenty of those idiots running around.

You sure pick and choose your arguments very carefully. So just because he chose an FFE over an ICE FF means its not a valid argument? What if he purchased said ICE FF and never drove it 40 miles from home and never drove it more than 80 miles per day. Would that mean the FFE is not a valid argument in that case???

Are you sure you have an FFE and are not just a troll?

 

[WattsUp]

This is a plain BS argument...

pjam3, could you please try participate in such a way where you don't accuse everyone of either lying or having "BS arguments"? That is usually how your posts begin (or end up), and the rest of the posts usually come off sounding like you most definitely think everyone else is an idiot (and particularly those who drive EVs, and especially when that EV is an FFE). You act as if only your opinions and experiences are valid. To round out your posts, you usually include some long-winded story about how your FFE didn't work for you on some particular trip and/or how some other car would have performed differently, and how much you regret buying an FFE.

Frankly, your posts just sound like venting rather than actually having a productive dialog with anybody. They inject a lot of negativity into the forum. I asked you before to stop doing that. It is selfish. We should be able to have differences of opinion, and share our experiences, without accusing each other of "spouting BS" or made to feel like our choices and opinions are invalid or stupid, and that every topic must devolve into "how it sucks for pjam3". It doesn't suck for everybody. Honestly.

 

[twscrap]

every topic must devolve into "how it sucks for pjam3"

Perhaps if we started a new post titled as above, he could go post there each time he has the urge to post a negative comment in someone else's thread. :lol:

 

[Zurc]

Michael makes an interesting point about why wouldn't people dump their ICE vehicles for an EV.
I'm thinking that perhaps auto manufacturers are looking at that and not putting a lot of hype into advertising electrics.
I can imagine what the impact would be if everyone just suddenly decided to dump their ice vehicles.
I don't think its an accident that EV's are growing by 20% every year. It allows a slow integration of EV's into the system thus helping to prevent serious economic issues from getting out of hand. For instance, what would happen to all the people making engines, and the parts needed to make them go? What would be the cost factor in retooling for auto manufacturer's to switch to manufacturing EV's in a hurry. I figure it's just a matter of time before there will be a swamp demand for EV's as people catch on and I'd guess the cost of Fuel will be the most likely determining factor.

Zurc.

 

[TexaCali]

Zurc,

The marketing term is "disruptive change" and EV's are certainly that. I can fully understand why dealers would be afraid of EV's - it takes away their service and repair business, which likely makes them more money than selling the cars in the first place. And service/repair is their real value add. When you purchase the car they are just a middle man - without service we really wouldn't need dealers at all.

Of course car manufactures are likely leery of the change as well - it opens the door for new players and renders obsolete all the investment they have poured into ICE development. Far more prudent for the manufactures to let these EV's catch on slowly and give them time to prepare and adapt than risk a disruptive change.

I also totally get the serial hybrid strategy (Volt, Ford Energy series, etc). This makes sense on so many levels. The consumer can still have "unlimited range" and simply fill the car up using the existing infrastructure when on road trips, yet be pure electric when driving short trips around town. The manufacture is still selling an ICE engine, and the dealer still gets to change the oil and perform service. Over time as battery storage improves and charging infrastructure expands IC engines will become less desirable and BEV's will become dominant.

 

[unplugged]

It is a BS argument because an FFE isn't an SUV so there are many things you just can't do in it. Trying to claim you will replace your SUV with an FFE is an argument for somebody who also has other cars that do other things. Or somebody who has one to many cars and didn't need the SUV anyway.

Well, you've done your best to come up with a bunch of "stupid" reasons to replace an SUV with an FFE. Of course, you've failed to come up with my real reason because you can't accept that there are a number of logical and very real reasons to switch from a gas guzzler to an electric. It doesn't fit your preconceived conclusion. The reason I traded in my SUV was because my kids grew up and I no longer needed the capacity for them or for our vacations.

I suppose that there are a great deal of potential buyers of EVs who have grown out of their SUVs (or will grow out of their SUVs). It's not really that hard to imagine.

But your usefulness on this board is becoming problematic. Eventually, after you have exhausted your rants and your arguments, you will fade away. And you won't be missed.

 

[pjam3]

It is a BS argument because an FFE isn't an SUV so there are many things you just can't do in it. Trying to claim you will replace your SUV with an FFE is an argument for somebody who also has other cars that do other things. Or somebody who has one to many cars and didn't need the SUV anyway.

Well, you've done your best to come up with a bunch of "stupid" reasons to replace an SUV with an FFE. Of course, you've failed to come up with my real reason because you can't accept that there are a number of logical and very real reasons to switch from a gas guzzler to an electric. It doesn't fit your preconceived conclusion. The reason I traded in my SUV was because my kids grew up and I no longer needed the capacity for them or for our vacations.

I suppose that there are a great deal of potential buyers of EVs who have grown out of their SUVs (or will grow out of their SUVs). It's not really that hard to imagine.

But your usefulness on this board is becoming problematic. Eventually, after you have exhausted your rants and your arguments, you will fade away. And you won't be missed.

You miss the entire point. Go figure. You had no need for an SUV anymore, so you replaced it with the FFE. Good for you, but it didn't have to be the FFE that replaced a Gas Guzzling SUV. The entire conversation is about people replacing ICE with Electrics. A big part of that is there isn't a big need to for most people. Nobody is going to replace an SUV they use for a FFE or Leaf. Yeah somebody who has an SUV that eats gas and is a waste of space in the garage, why not. Then again, why not a Prius or one of the Plug-in Hybrids that the Manufacturers are pushing.

People can say whatever they want, but the FFE is pretty much a failure. Ford has sold under 700 of those cars this year. Blame whatever you want, but its obvious Ford doesn't care to sell them and people dont' care to buy them. Ford is all-in when it comes to the C-Max and Energi, they are pretty much all out when it comes to the FFE. Why? Who knows, because Nissan and BMW are looking to Partner with Tesla and build even better Electrics.

The FFE is a great car for what is serves, but it also looks like a car Ford is going to forget about. Why harp on what you wish for if the reality is, Ford isn't going to listen or care. The FFE is pretty much a pointless car to the company that makes it. Ask them why that is whereas other companies like Tesla, Nissan, even BMW seem to be all in when it comes to Electrics.

 

[EVA]

No PJam you miss the point. Ford has chosen not to market or advertise the car. They don't have to do any of that, if they met the goals they set for the FFE. Look at the production line - they have found a way to make minimal investment (read no single dedicated production line for the FFE) to produce an incredibly good car. Now it is an incredibly good car compared to similar cars - the Leaf and the i3. Ford figured out how to make a car that acts a lot like an ICE, but is all electric. It is a really well executed car.

Look at those manufacturing videos JMueller has posted - they are genius. The car is built on exactly the same line as the ICE Focus. It is even randomly produced whenever they require cars. Ford is incredible with what they've done.

Now also take this in context - I have said the FFE is a remarkable car, actually just about a great car. I own a Tesla Model S and I said that. I love the FFE, fully aware of the limitations. Let that sink in - I have a choice of either car drive. Around town I choose the FFE. For further trips, I choose the Tesla. Do I need to say more?

I have test driven the i3. It is a cute car, way overboard on the recycled materials, handles fine, has decent acceleration. It feels like an SUV - the seating position is super high up, but the center of gravity is really low. BMW left off the power seats because they weigh too much. The Leaf and i3 are manufactured on dedicated lines - they are only vaguely related to the ICE cars.

Let that last point sink in. Why does Nissan and BMW market the life out of those two cars? They HAVE to, they have invested so much money in sunk costs, they can't afford to not market them. The FFE can live without all that advertising.

PJam - you made a mistake, you didn't fully understand 70 miles of range before you bought the car. We all get it. The car is wrong for you. It isn't wrong for a lot of other people.

Please post the reference to Nissan and BMW collaborating with Tesla to build electric cars. The Toyota Rav4 thing was a short term California only compliance experiment. Toyota got some drive train and batteries out of the deal. They didn't get an SUV version of a Model S.

If there is a collaboration, Tesla got a bunch of switch gear from Mercedes - gear shift lever, cruise control, mirror controls, and some other minor things. Guess what most people find annoying about the car - the gear shift, and the location of the cruise control.

 

[EVA]

Sorry for going all Tesla here - the discussion about giving up an SUV for an electric car got me thinking about an interesting question asked in the Tesla forums. "What car did you drive before the Model S?" So now all of you are probably thinking (I sure did) - expensive cars, crazy expensive cars. Well yeah, there were a few of those. The huge surprise - a large number of Prius, Volkswagens, Volvo, a 1996 Cavalier, a Corolla, Pontiac, Honda Civic Hybrid... There was no pattern - people drove all kinds of cars, not necessarily expensive. I saw a 1960s Rolls Royce that was traded for a Model S - the guy drove it every day.

People have all kinds of reasons for buying a particular car. It isn't always the reason you might think. And telling somebody that their reasoning is BS is simply wrong. There's just no reason to get nasty about it.

 

[unplugged]

Nobody is going to replace an SUV they use for a FFE or Leaf.

That is an absurd point, if that's what you are trying to make. Nobody is going to replace a tractor-trailer rig they use with an SUV, either. What remotely logical point are you trying to make? People don't replace tow trucks with Prius' either. You claimed that no one would replace an SUV with an EV. I and another member pointed out we had done just that. Now you claim, "But you weren't using it as an SUV anymore!" Yeah, and my car doesn't use gas anymore. So?