I'm sorry you're seeing the same sort of thing I am, although mine is less severe. I have a lot more miles but much milder temps.
I have the impression that battery fade is seen to a greater degree in cold weather than in warm. This makes some sense, I think....a fading battery experiences both capacity fade and power fade. Power fade is in effect an increase in effective series resistance. So possibly as the battery ages, not only does it lose capacity, but it wastes more energy to ESR, especially in the cold.
My other impression is that the ETE estimate (which is the basis of the battery percentage display) is out-to-lunch. The displayed battery percentage seems to be whatever is the current ETE divided by the ETE at the end of the last full charge. Neither one seems correct to me, so it doesn't surprise me that the percentage is unreliable.
In my case, the ETE after charge is substantially less than the actual available per trip meter; and the ETE falls rapidly early in the discharge cycle. What your wife observed is the same sort of thing...ETE (and therefore percentage) fall disproportionately in the first few miles.
If you have FORSCAN, see if the cell variance gets large near the end. You might have a few weak cells, or even just one. I suspect the car says "I'm done" when the first cell hits minimum, even if all the others are doing OK. If this is the case, possibly warranty will cover it???