150 mile range

[twscrap]

This is one of the, if not the single-most important factor in the purchase of consumer goods and in this case by extension the adoption of a new technology, the BEV. To date, most people have considered the “buy-in” cost as the biggest factor in deciding purchases. And as cars are usually the second most expensive purchase we will ever make (behind the family house), a price tag increase of 10% let alone 20 or 25% is often enough to move that choice out of the pre-determined price range and causes the consumer to either buy the less expensive model or simply not buy at all and continue to operate an already obsolete and high operating cost poorly performing vehicle. In general, reduced life cycle cost – the complete cost of ownership from purchase to disposal – often depends on purchasing a higher quality and hence higher cost item. Thereafter maintenance and operating costs will be less such that over the now average 7-8 year ownership span, the total cost of ownership is often less than the lower priced version. This rarely works out to be the case if people only own their vehicle for 2 -3 years or if they keep it for an inordinately long period such as 15 or more years. Depending on mileage driven, while some 25% more expensive that the FF Titanium ICE, the FFE can cross the threshold for lower life cycle cost as soon as 4 years but more commonly at years 5 or 6.
For various reasons not everyone can afford the BEV “buy-in” premium. It can be as simple as not being able to raise the required credit or not having sufficient remaining life on their ICE to save up for the premium price of the FFE compared to a FF ICE. This cost premium will be one of the primary reasons that BEVs will take a long time to gain a large market share and quite perversely will be a primary reason why people continue to buy and operate ICE platforms which over the vehicle’s life cycle will cost them more than would a BEV operated for the same life span and overall mileage.
The purchase price cost premium cannot be avoided nor can it be dismissed when prospective clients investigate the purchase of a BEV. Advocates and sales staff as well as corporate marketing campaigns will need to promote these vehicles not only on their capabilities but equally importantly on their life cycle cost savings based not only on fuel cost savings but also on reduced maintenance requirements. Unfortunately the reduced maintenance aspect is in direct opposition to the maintenance profit model of most dealerships and will hence be a “hard sell” at the corporate level.

Thanks and Cheers

Carl

I think you may be giving folks far too much credit. I've had more discussions with folks than I can count where they approached me for advice on purchasing an EV (BEV or PHEV). In every case they would have been saving money the first month of ownership if they went with the EV v. the ICE they were considering (Granted they would have to float the tax credit until next April, but all of them were financially able to do so). In every single case they have opted for ICE. Why? FEAR. Every single one of them 'found' a reason the EV wouldn't work for them. And we're not talking the big reasons like 'not enough range' for my daily needs. We're talking about the 'I don't want to have to remember to plug it in every night' or 'I don't want to have to think about my range' reasons. Really? You are so lazy that you can't be bothered to plug in every night or to actually THINK once in awhile? It's not really that much effort to save money every single month.

Here's an example - My brother and sister in-law were considering a Cruze and a Volt. After the tax credit the Volt was ~$3k more. He has a 37 mile round trip commute, and there's a L2 across the street from his office in case he needed to do something after work and didn't want to put gas in the thing. He was willing to put $7500 down on the Volt because he'd only be floating the money for ~8 months. Plan was to put nothing down on a Cruze if they went that direction. Result? Monthly payment on the Cruze that they bought was $117 higher than their Volt Payment would have been. And that doesn't even take into account the fuel savings. For them, just based on the work commute (and no other driving they might do during the course of a month) their daily fuel cost savings would be $3.53. Net savings per month had they bought the Volt instead of the Cruze they opted for would have been $189/month. It wouldn't take long to pay off a Clipper Creek LCS-25 with that savings. Three additional points - First, this is someone who has had direct exposure to BEVs as I've been driving electric for almost 2.5 years that came to me for advice on this topic. Second, he's an accountant. And finally, in a prior life he was a licensed electrician, so he wouldn't have to pay anyone to do the EVSE install - and it wouldn't have been his first, as he installed mine.

So what was his reasoning you might ask? Didn't want to have to remember to plug in every night, and the good old standby of 'fear of battery replacement costs' as he plans on keeping the car for a decade. I had almost the exact same discussion with someone that I work with about the CMax and the CMax energy. He went with the CMax because he felt like the whole getting an EVSE and plugging the car in was two complicated for him to deal with. This individual is one of the most renowned scientists on the planet in his field. I could go on with more examples, but I think you get the point.

Even when the savings is immediate, folks either don't bother to do the math, or find some other excuse not to change out of fear or perception.

Sorry, I'll get off my soapbox now, but just re-living those discussions to type them up here has gotten my blood boiling again. Anyway, my point is, there isn't always a significant premium to buying in to the EV world, and reasonably intelligent people with the resources and ability to get into an EV don't, even if it won't negatively impact their life in any meaningful way.

 

[jmueller065]

Two counter examples:

My father just picked up a C-Max Energi mostly because of a great deal Ford recently had on them. He lives on a small island and only drives, at most, 10 miles a day. (Yes he has been exposed to BEV since I've had the FFE for a year now and they have visited once or twice.) He is now very happy as he plugs in every time he is home and has yet to burn any gas in it (really how hard is it to plug the car in? You plug your phone in).

#2 A coworker was looking to get a C-Max (either hybrid or Energi--he hadn't made up his mind). I was talking to him about the FFE and my plans to order one (this was more than a year ago when I ordered mine). He was a little concerned about range as his round trip commute is a bit further than mine (just a bit over 50 miles) and he knew in the winter that would be tough in the FFE. A week after I ordered my FFE, he ordered his. (Both of us made it through the nasty winter without having to drive an ICE vehicle..)

 

[v_traveller]

I doubt any of us can really speak on Ford’s behalf regarding their commitment to BEVs.

Yup! That's why I provided a link to Ford's sustainability report. From that it's evident that they're committed to BEVs for the long term.

as far as I can see Ford has certainly not given any indication that they have any intention of taking a market leadership position and expanding their line of BEVs.

Again, clearly evident in their sustainability report. No intent on being an BEV market leader, but it does look like that their BEV is seen as filling a critical technology development role for other powertrains.

The flexible production line could actually be Ford’s greatest strengths going forward with the current generation BEV development. As long as any potential BEVs versions of the Fusion and MKZ share a production glider with their ICE counterparts the infrastructure investment in producing BEVs will be minimal which would help any internal BEV champions leverage from the FFE experience and keep overhead costs to a minimum. (I pick these two models as I think they would be ideal choices for expanding the Ford BEV production as they hold the potential to foster the introduction and adoption of the BEV platform to a significantly wider market demographic than that represented by the FFE.)

I think this is the beauty of Ford's strategy - they may not be vying for market leadership or first to market in any one of the powertrain options, but I'd bet money on them being the first to offer BEV, PHEV/HEV, ICE and Diesel powertain options across all of their popular platforms. The Focus is almost there... just missing the PHEV/HEV. Of all manufacturers they seem to be the one that's poised to achieve that.

The initiation of a dedicated production line for a purpose designed and built BEV would mark/define the introduction of a second generation BEV.

I think that's unlikely, since Ford stated in their sustainability report that they are "basing our electrified vehicle products on our highest-volume global platforms." They've also stated that in a couple of interviews.

The resultant BEVs from such an investment and corporate acceptance of BEVs would be a “no compromise” efforts and mark a true embracing of a future where BEVs become a significant, if not majority, production and sales capacity. For that to be acheived though there would have to be a fundamental change in the corporate view of BEVs and the efforts allocated to their marketing.

I think that until there is some breakthrough in battery technology that drives the cost down by at least half, we won't see a true embracing of BEVs by any manufacturer except for Tesla or any other startup BEV-only company that might come in the future. One might argue that Nissan is committed - but I say they aren't; they've isolated their BEV to only one dedicated platform and are only now moving it to another platform - an ugly, less popular ICE platform at that. Their true commitment will be demonstrated, I think, when they offer a BEV option across a number of popular ICE platforms, like the Altima and Rogue. I'm not saying that they're less committed than Ford; they're merely taking a different approach that, if BEVs become a total failure for some reason, the company as a whole will still survive. Just like Ford.

 

[hybridbear]

One might argue that Nissan is committed - but I say they aren't; they've isolated their BEV to only one dedicated platform and are only now moving it to another platform - an ugly, less popular ICE platform at that. Their true commitment will be demonstrated, I think, when they offer a BEV option across a number of popular ICE platforms, like the Altima and Rogue. I'm not saying that they're less committed than Ford; they're merely taking a different approach that, if BEVs become a total failure for some reason, the company as a whole will still survive. Just like Ford.

Exactly! And I believe that Nissan's BEV success will be limited until they sell a BEV Altima and somehow incentivize their dealers to promote the BEV Altima to customers instead of the gas Altima. The problem is, why would Nissan do that? They likely make a higher profit margin on the gas Altima. And the gas Altima provides service revenue for dealers which a BEV Altima wouldn't. So both the dealer & Nissan have incentives to not sell a BEV Altima or a BEV Leaf or any other BEV. This is the conundrum.

 

[twscrap]

Two counter examples:

My father just picked up a C-Max Energi mostly because of a great deal Ford recently had on them. He lives on a small island and only drives, at most, 10 miles a day. (Yes he has been exposed to BEV since I've had the FFE for a year now and they have visited once or twice.) He is now very happy as he plugs in every time he is home and has yet to burn any gas in it (really how hard is it to plug the car in? You plug your phone in).

#2 A coworker was looking to get a C-Max (either hybrid or Energi--he hadn't made up his mind). I was talking to him about the FFE and my plans to order one (this was more than a year ago when I ordered mine). He was a little concerned about range as his round trip commute is a bit further than mine (just a bit over 50 miles) and he knew in the winter that would be tough in the FFE. A week after I ordered my FFE, he ordered his. (Both of us made it through the nasty winter without having to drive an ICE vehicle..)

Good to see someone has had some luck creating converts!

 

[jmueller065]

Just saw an interesting article that is somewhat relevant to these long discussions:
http://insideevs.com/which-automakers-serious-about-making-evs/

 

[twscrap]

Just saw an interesting article that is somewhat relevant to these long discussions:
http://insideevs.com/which-automakers-serious-about-making-evs/

It's almost like they were following our thread...

 

[mcowger]

If Ford would offer increased range as an extra-cost option, I'd be very inclined to buy it. Even 120 miles is way better than 70-80

A version where the entire trunk area is filled with battery?

Given what I use the car for - yup, I'd be fine if it were.

 

[portable]

GM may beat ford and tesla to the punch !

http://cleantechnica.com/2014/07/26/chevy-sonic-200-mile-range-coming-2016/

GM may have been waiting in the wings watching to see how electric (BEV) cars were received before making their move !

 

[jmueller065]

Interesting article from July. It gets even more interesting if you start reading the comments on there. The vast majority of comments imply that the article is more hype than anything GM has publicly released.
For whatever its worth I hope GM does launch a 200 mile spark/sonic/etc. I hope Ford does too in some form (a 200 mile EV Fusion would be sweet).

 

[NightHawk]

From several of these type reports, it seems that 2016 is going to be a big year for EVs with possibly several manufacturers coming out with new higher capacity batteries to double the current range.
Thats what I'm hoping for when my 3 year FFE lease ends in Sep 2017.

 

[Olagon]

Good tip. If you use Android, go to https://maps.google.com/locationhistory and you'll see how far you drive for any day since you've had your device (unless you turned this feature off). Good way to see exactly what kind of range you need without charging as you go. I show folks this and they are usually surprised their needed range is less than what's needed.

I think Ford could offer a deal with Enterprise for a couple of free rentals per year for times when you need a longer commute.

 

[michael]

GM may beat ford and tesla to the punch !

http://cleantechnica.com/2014/07/26/chevy-sonic-200-mile-range-coming-2016/

GM may have been waiting in the wings watching to see how electric (BEV) cars were received before making their move !

If that 150-200 mile Sonic is for real, it would be a game changer. I'd go for it if the price were even halfway reasonable.

 

[twscrap]

Good tip. If you use Android, go to https://maps.google.com/locationhistory and you'll see how far you drive for any day since you've had your device (unless you turned this feature off). Good way to see exactly what kind of range you need without charging as you go. I show folks this and they are usually surprised their needed range is less than what's needed.

I think Ford could offer a deal with Enterprise for a couple of free rentals per year for times when you need a longer commute.

This doesn't account for cases where you had to take a different car or skipped the trip altogether due to the length of the trip.

 

[Olagon]

Good tip. If you use Android, go to https://maps.google.com/locationhistory and you'll see how far you drive for any day since you've had your device (unless you turned this feature off). Good way to see exactly what kind of range you need without charging as you go. I show folks this and they are usually surprised their needed range is less than what's needed.

I think Ford could offer a deal with Enterprise for a couple of free rentals per year for times when you need a longer commute.

This doesn't account for cases where you had to take a different car or skipped the trip altogether due to the length of the trip.

Yes, I meant this is a useful tool for folks that currently drive an ICE car and need to get a sense for the longest one-way trip they have taken in say the past 30 days.

 

[jmueller065]

Yes, I meant this is a useful tool for folks that currently drive an ICE car and need to get a sense for the longest one-way trip they have taken in say the past 30 days.

There is an app for that: iEV http://www.ievapp.com/
Install it on your smartphone, select the EV you are interested in, then run it while you're driving around. It will show you your estimated EV power consumption, range, etc. for the EV selected and give you a score of how will that EV fit for you.

I used it all the time while my FFE was on order to determine how the FFE would work for me. It was pretty close to my actual figures with the FFE.

 

[Kakkerlak]

For me, the iEV app was right on track with my actual power usage of the FFE, with the exception that it always expressed the data in metric even when you switched it to English units.

What it didn't do was account for heater and defroster use. It does have the ability to adjust for ambient temperature for battery performance, but it was summer when I was using it and I just blithely left it at 75F ambient temperature all the time.

I drop about 10 miles of range per trip when I use the defroster or heater, and I know about that now as an FFE lessee.

If Ford comes out with an Energi or longer-range FFE in 2017, with Sync 3, I would buy one instead of waiting for Tesla to come out with the Model III.

 

[Olagon]

Yes, I meant this is a useful tool for folks that currently drive an ICE car and need to get a sense for the longest one-way trip they have taken in say the past 30 days.

There is an app for that: iEV http://www.ievapp.com/
Install it on your smartphone, select the EV you are interested in, then run it while you're driving around. It will show you your estimated EV power consumption, range, etc. for the EV selected and give you a score of how will that EV fit for you.

I used it all the time while my FFE was on order to determine how the FFE would work for me. It was pretty close to my actual figures with the FFE.

Thanks. I bookmarked that app to pass on to friends who are interested.