September Sales-110 Units/Trouble in Fordsville

[A Big 9V]

Talked about this in another post. Limited 2014's available, no 2013's left, 110 car sales in the month of September for a major car company. Is Ford dwindling down their EV effort or is it just a terrible inventory management situation. This board seems to rightfully suggest a built up demand and appreciation for the FFE.
WHAT GIVES FORD?????

 

[jmueller065]

Um Ford never sells more than like 120 FFE's per month anyway so 110 is right in line with what is expected.

Since there was a model-year changeover (even if the FFE didn't change) they still shut the plant down for a bit which does reduce the amount produced; and since they only make about 4 FFE's per shift a couple days shutdown equals about 20 vehicles.

 

[A Big 9V]

...well more like 163 over the past 7 months prior. I'll grant you not even a debate at such a small number but noteworthy it's their second lowest month this year and nothing in the supply chain for October. Just sayin. So I can assume you believe that Ford is still in the game. I know we're the choir loving the vehicle but also I find people on this board to be appropriately objective.

 

[jmueller065]

Of course Ford is still in the game: They have to...by law!

In CA there is a law that says each manufacturer must produce X no emission vehicles (e.g. compliance cars) or buy "energy credits" from a manufacturer who has plenty to spare (e.g. Tesla). Now that Ford has their zero emissions vehicle they aren't going to give that up. Even if they decide to stop producing the FFE they will use the experience to produce something else all electric (perhaps they would drop the drive train into a C-Max or a Fusion since those cars already have a spot for batteries). So until CA's laws change they will be making a BEV of some sort (and in fact, if CA and the US, follow history the laws will change and only get tougher--perhaps the next round of laws will say that they need 2 zero-emission vehicles?)

Just don't call the FFE a compliance car: Even though Ford only sells enough FFE's to consider it a compliance car (e.g. they sell just over the minimum that CA requires) Ford marketing has bristled whenever someone in the media calls the FFE a compliance car.

I doubt we'll see any major changes to the FFE until there is a major redesign of the Focus and since the Focus last year was the #1 car worldwide (Ford keeps touting the fact that it sold over 1 million Focuses worldwide last year) I don't think it will change as quickly as some of the other models. I'm sure its due for a facelift soon but I doubt it will get a ground up redesign...

In addition, this past summer they just started production of the FFE in Europe (http://green.autoblog.com/2013/06/12/ford-starts-focus-electric-production-in-europe-not-updating-ev/). It would be silly to stop production of a car while they are still rolling it out across the world!

JMHO

 

[A Big 9V]

...great facts, thanks. The notation of European production is a tangible element in this discussion.

 

[v_traveller]

I recall seeing a video last June or so about Ford's electrification strategy. In searching for it I found this:

http://corporate.ford.com/microsites/sustainability-report-2012-13/environment-products-plan-overview

This simple chart, as I interpret it, says that Ford is in the BEV game for the long haul and will continue to evolve the technology, will use what is learned on BEVs to develop next-gen hybrids and fuel cell vehicles. For those unfamiliar with a fuel cell vehicle (not that I'm an expert, only read some articles on it), it's basically an EV with electricity supplied by a hydrogen fuel cell rather than a battery.

Something else that might also be of interest:

http://corporate.ford.com/microsites/sustainability-report-2012-13/environment-products-electrification-strategy

In the paragraph "Using Global Platforms", Ford explains why they will use high-volume global platforms, which to me says they won't be building a purpose-built EV (i.e. like Tesla). For an established mass producer of ICE vehicles, I think this is the best, tried-and-true approach that minimizes risk to the company.

Yeah, that sales number (110) looks bad compared to August (175), but I'm wondering if was is because the 2013 inventory sold out faster than expected. Also, I read somewhere that August had 28 selling days, and September had 23.

Or maybe the Fusion and C-Max Energi took some sales away from the FFE... both broke their own sales records last month while the rest of the plug-ins, like the FFE, were flat or down:

http://insideevs.com/ford-sets-new-highs-on-c-max-and-fusion-energi-in-september-as-rest-of-segment-pauses/

Have I put you to sleep yet? Okay, I'll shut up now...

 

[Zurc]

Ford marketing can bristle all they want. The numbers tell the story.
4 cars per shift? Come on that's ridiculous. Ford can spit cars out faster than that.
People waiting 3 and 4 months for delivery is a tad long don't you think?
For what ever reason, ford is dragging their heels where production and marketing of the FFE is concerned.
Like it or not, its a compliance car. And if it weren't for the 38million people living in CA, the FFE probably wouldn't exist.
The decision to treat the FFE the way it currently appears to be treated is not one of fords better ideas in my opinion.

Zurc.

 

[jmueller065]

Like it or not, its a compliance car.

One of the common definitions of a compliance car is that it is only available in selected markets. The FFE is available in every state, Canada, and Europe. It is also manufactured in two separate plants.
I think it is something more than a compliance car, but something less than a full production car. It's more of a niche vehicle.

3 or 4 months for delivery is nothing: back in 1999 I ordered an F-250. It took 6 months to get that truck.

 

[Zurc]

Ok i'll run with the niche vehicle idea. Although even as a niche vehicle, ford doesn't appear to put much effort into selling it.
I've mentioned previously that when I asked for an FFE it was like "You want What?" and when I went through the paper work I had to point things out like the battery warranty. Fords extended warranties say that batteries are not covered under the extended warranty plan.
It took some convincing to get the idea across, that the focus battery was a different animal and would have its own warranty. The guy had to call his contact who fell out of bed to answer the phone on a Saturday afternoon to tell him that yes, the lithium ion battery had an 8 year 100k mile warranty on it. there were several other items as well. So now that I've taken the whole dealership thru the process, they have no excuse next time not to know something about the FFE. Green plate? what is a Green plate?

A six month wait for a truck would be tough to take. As I look at my local dealers lot, there's about 40 F150's sitting all lined up to go.
Probably 25 or 30 Ice focus's also nicely lined up and ready to go. along with the rest of the ford line up including the mustang in its various flavors. I wasn't shopping for F250 or f350's so wasn't really paying much attention to how many but there's usually several of each in the lot at any given time. So I guess ford just has a weird supply line or the dealer ordered them a long long time ago.

I'm thinking also that ford can't have cars sitting around in the lot and not selling what with the next model year constantly on the go all the time. They'd likely take a bit of a hit on a last years model sale. So could simply be a caution thing. Still, 3-4 months? Well, I retain the right to WHINE!!!

Zurc.

 

[Erik]

3 or 4 months for delivery is nothing: back in 1999 I ordered an F-250. It took 6 months to get that truck.

I ordered a Fit EV in late April 2013. Over a year later, I'm still waiting. :lol:
I picked up the FFE in November, but they don't know that. Still want them to finally call so I can laugh at them and cancel.

 

[twscrap]

There's debate about the Compliance Car definition, but the fact is, if it weren't for CA laws, Ford would not be building the FFE. In my mind that is what makes it a compliance vehicle.

 

[ElSupreme]

There's debate about the Compliance Car definition, but the fact is, if it weren't for CA laws, Ford would not be building the FFE. In my mind that is what makes it a compliance vehicle.

But doesn't that nix everything but the Tesla Model S at this point? I would argue CARB and CA laws are the only reason why the LEAF exists. I just think that Nissan thought it would be profitable so they just sell it everywhere.

And from someone coming from outside of California (and other CARB states) the distinction is really easy. Can I buy the car in my state [GA]? If the answer is yes then it isn't a compliance car. If I can't then compliance car.

Which gives me the Model S, FFE, i3 (in a few months), iMiEV, Smart ED, and LEAF as non-compliance cars. In that these vehicles aren't 100% dedicated to CARB compliance.

I can't buy a Rav4, Fit, 500, and Spark. As these vehicles are only sold in CARB states.

 

[Zurc]

So I've had another thought.
If large numbers of people start buying EV's of any description, then the electric grid is going to take the brunt.
I'm betting that the lack of effort to sell may be due to the desire to bring EV's in slowly to allow the grid to update and accommodate.
Just a thought.

Zurc

 

[WattsUp]

If large numbers of people start buying EV's of any description, then the electric grid is going to take the brunt.

Not true. The grid operates way below full capacity at night, which is exactly when most people will charge their EVs. There is actually plenty of capacity to take up the slack. In fact, utilities welcome any extra the increase in load during the nighttime lull because it enables them to maximize the return on their investment. They built the power plant to run it at full capacity and sell as much electricity as possible. Currently, the don't sell nearly as much electricity at night as during the day. EVs offer the opportunity to change that, and increase their overall sales volume.

Additionally, the more EVs people drive, the less gasoline they will consume, and, with that reduced demand, the less electricity will be needed to refine all that unneeded gasoline. (The process of refining one gallon of gasoline is estimated to consume as much as 7 kWh of electricity.) Again, EVs don't create capacity problems with the grid... if anything, they improve them, or at least counterbalance them.

That last point about gasoline refinement illustrates the most clearly (to me) why EVs are sooo much more efficient than ICEs. Before an ICE vehicle has even driven anywhere on a single gallon of gasoline deposited into its tank (which, on average, will propel it about 25 miles), the average EV could have also driven about the same distance (25 miles) on the electricity (7 kWh) used to refine that one gallon alone! And this incredible inefficiency (for the ICE) doesn't even take into account all the other energy (and pollution) required to extract the initial crude oil, transport the oil to the refinery, transport (again!) the gasoline to the filling station, and even maintain the station and run the dang pumps to deposit the gasoline in the tank! Not to mention the costs in human lives, wars, and political conflict that it takes to forcefully maintain our access to the world's oil.

How about we skip all the gasoline "middle men" and simply power our cars directly on that 7 kWh?

 

[v_traveller]

There are some good reads out there on the subject that report that stressing of the grid due to proliferation of EVs shouldn't be a concern. Here are a couple:

http://insideevs.com/pecan-street-project-ev-charging-not-likely-to-stress-grid/

http://cleantechnica.com/2014/02/03/grid-capacity-electric-vehicles-actually-problem-studies-find/

 

[v_traveller]

There's debate about the Compliance Car definition, but the fact is, if it weren't for CA laws, Ford would not be building the FFE. In my mind that is what makes it a compliance vehicle.

But doesn't that nix everything but the Tesla Model S at this point? I would argue CARB and CA laws are the only reason why the LEAF exists. I just think that Nissan thought it would be profitable so they just sell it everywhere.

I think that if not for CARB and CA laws, even Tesla would not exist in this day and age. A couple of LA Times article last year postulated that if not for ZEV credits that Tesla earns and then sells to other auto manufacturers, the Model S would have to sell for $35,000 more:

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/may/05/business/la-fi-electric-cars-20130506
"In its zeal to push electric cars into the market, the state has created a system in which Tesla can make as much as $35,000 extra on each sale of its luxury Model S electric sports sedans. That's because the Palo Alto company qualifies for coveted state environmental credits that it can turn into cash."

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-model-s-20130820-story.html#page=1
"On the more expensive Model S -- with the biggest battery and longest driving range -- Tesla collects seven environmental credits from California's Air Resources Board. It can sell those credits for an estimated $5,000 each to other automakers, as Los Angeles Times auto reporter Jerry Hirsch reported earlier this year. Other automakers need the credits to meet state pollution regulations.

So Tesla can net as much as $35,000 per Model S -- more than most cars cost. It's the difference between profit and loss. During just the first six months of this year, Tesla has sold about $150 million in environmental credits.

That’s on top of the up to $10,000 in state and federal government subsidies directly to buyers of electric cars. Strip all that away, and Tesla presumably would have to sell its top-end Model S for something more like $150,000, in the same volume, to make any money."

So I contend that the Model S, in the broad sense described above, is also a compliance car in that it wouldn't exist without the need or desire from the industry as a whole to comply with California laws and mandates.

That being said, I'm with Elsupreme on his list of not-just-for-compliance cars, per the commonly accepted definition of "compliance car".

 

[jmueller065]

I had read somewhere that Tesla's credits per car are now going down (to 6 I think). I think they even mentioned it in one of their quarterly reports that their profit is shifting from the credits to the cars because they are earning fewer credits.

Ah here we go: its going to be down to four credits per car:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-04/tesla-to-get-fewer-eco-credits-as-california-tweaks-rules.html

 

[JOEFRIDAY]

Even though the FFE is supposed to be available nationwide, they can be very difficult to find. And when you do find one, you probably know more about it (if you study this board) than the salesman.

Ford has made it difficult and expensive for a dealer to sell the EV's. Dealers have to spend $40,000 getting set up with the system, chargers, training, etc. So most dealers do not do it. Dealers don't make much money on the car in the first place and their service department is not going to be seeing you for oil changes, etc. So the service revenue is not there for the dealer either. It's going to take quite a while for a dealer to get his $40,000 back in the EV department.

When you do find a dealer that happens to have a FFE, you most likely are going to have a difficult time getting someone to sell it to you for a number of reasons, let alone the complete lack of knowledge about this incredible vehicle.

So in the end, it comes down to availability. If the car is not available and the salesman can't match up the proper customer for the FFE, then it will not sell.

At some point, Ford will figure it out. But that will be way after they simplify that annoying SYNC system that is installed on many Ford and Lincoln vehicles. I rented a car with the SYNC system and for three days I couldn't even figure out how to turn on the radio. I still don't know how to use the SYNC system in the FFE with any degree of usefulness.

Joe

 

[unplugged]

Ford has made it difficult and expensive for a dealer to sell the EV's. Dealers have to spend $40,000 getting set up with the system, chargers, training, etc. So most dealers do not do it. Dealers don't make much money on the car in the first place and their service department is not going to be seeing you for oil changes, etc. So the service revenue is not there for the dealer either. It's going to take quite a while for a dealer to get his $40,000 back in the EV department.

While I agree with most of what you state about Ford's poor marketing performance with the FFE, I will point out that most of the training and all of the infrastructure necessary for the Focus Electric applies to Ford's Energi products, so the chargers and other items are used for many models. I do agree that the problem with any dealer selling EVs alongside of gassers (or even half-gassers) is that there is little incentive to sell the EV.

But that will be way after they simplify that annoying SYNC system that is installed on many Ford and Lincoln vehicles. I rented a car with the SYNC system and for three days I couldn't even figure out how to turn on the radio. I still don't know how to use the SYNC system in the FFE with any degree of usefulness.

I have found the SYNC system frustrating because of slowness, non-intuitive interface, and too many steps. I think it isn't too difficult to learn, however.

 

[Zurc]

"Even though the FFE is supposed to be available nationwide, they can be very difficult to find. And when you do find one, you probably know more about it (if you study this board) than the salesman."

That is absolutely how my current FFE purchase is going.
As of the time that I walked in and said get me an FFE, my local dealer had only sold one FFE and it was to the local hydro company.
Everyone in the place had a serious lack of knowledge of the product from sales through admin. I have mentioned some of this in other posts.

"Ford has made it difficult and expensive for a dealer to sell the EV's. Dealers have to spend $40,000 getting set up with the system, chargers, training, etc. So most dealers do not do it. Dealers don't make much money on the car in the first place and their service department is not going to be seeing you for oil changes, etc. So the service revenue is not there for the dealer either. It's going to take quite a while for a dealer to get his $40,000 back in the EV department. "

This is likely the reason why my local dealer has not yet set up for EV servicing and Sales.

"When you do find a dealer that happens to have a FFE, you most likely are going to have a difficult time getting someone to sell it to you for a number of reasons, let alone the complete lack of knowledge about this incredible vehicle. "

I did not have a problem with this. Perhaps because the sales person is new to the dealership.
In fact, most people in the dealership are looking forward to having the FFE come in and have admitted that they have learned a great deal because of this sale despite having already sold one FFE.

Zurc.