bev_la said:
I WOULD drive my gas powered car 10 miles if the range was 10 miles (if I had to). I have 100% confidence in the estimate. I have no confidence in the FFE range estimate.
To be fair, your gas car's estimate probably has a built-in "buffer" of several (if not tens) of miles. In reality, this range estimate that you have "100% confidence in" is probably just as "bad" as the FFE's estimate, but there's a significant reserve to take up the slack for its "mistakes" (aka, failing to predict the future with complete accuracy).
Let's assume that "buffer" is 10 miles. That's all well and good for a gas car (where such a buffer requires only a fraction of a gallon of gasoline, with the tank holding many several), but providing for such a buffer in an EV is currently prohibitive. In the FFE, such a buffer would represent over 10% of the total nominal range! (Not to mention around $2000 of the vehicle's cost.) The reality of current (affordable) EV technology does not allow Ford, Nissan, or anyone else to "hide away" that much range "just in case" somebody pushes their car to the limit. Instead, they advertise the full range
possible (emphasis on "possible"), using every watt-hour of energy available for propelling the car that can be stored in a very expensive battery.
In other words, gasoline cars can afford to be a bit "sloppy" estimating range because it is relatively cheap and easy to "hide away" some gasoline as a buffer (meaning, an empty tank isn't necessarily an empty tank), whereas EVs (currently) lay everything on the table (meaning, an empty battery
really is an empty battery). You simply have to drive with this in mind.
But someday... batteries will be so cheap and powerful that it will make sense for EV range estimates to include a significant buffer too. Basically, EV range estimates will be able to become more sloppy. In fact, EVs may someday have so much stored energy available, we might no longer need to estimate range very precisely at all... and instead just provide some general indication of how close the battery is to being "full" or "empty". After all, that's how we did it for a long time (and many people still do) in gas cars... just an analog needle, vaguely indicating "how much energy" was left for driving.
Again, gas cars have it easy. They have gobs of stored energy. Consider this: If the FFE were a gas car, it would only be able to hold about three gallons of gasoline (assuming a typical 25 MPG). Try driving a gas car around day after day with only three gallons (or less) in the tank at any given moment. Even with an awesome range estimator, you're likely to get stranded if you don't watch the tank very carefully.